Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) provides subscribers with the latest analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equity markets and global funds across Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Produced by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, EMM systematically covers the latest market developments for each region.
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Economy / Japan
Despite a further extension to the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s monetary easing efforts, we believe that global deflationary concerns and dampening risk sentiment will continue to support the Japanese yen over the coming months. However, with the long JPY trade starting to look crowded and the currency's technicals rolling over, a renewed appreciatory surge also appears unlikely.
2010-08-31Economy / China
Since the People's Bank of China announced it would allow greater yuan flexibility back in June, allowing more two-way trade, we have seen just that. The CNY/US$ rate strengthened from...
2010-08-26Economy / Sri Lanka
In line with our expectations, the Sri Lankan rupee has edged steadily upwards in 2010 on the back of a stronger external balance sheet, fiscal improvements, and solid economic recovery...
2010-08-02Economy / Switzerland
Switzerland's banking system looks set to enjoy broad stability as cantonal banks maintain their conservative lending practices while conditions for the two grossbanken, UBS and Credit Suisse, continue to slowly improve. Indeed, both big banks' profitability has bounced back while balance sheets have been repaired. Despite significant systemic tail risks emanating from sovereign...
2010-08-20Economy / Germany
Germany's robust rate of economic expansion will not be sustainable over coming quarters. A deteriorating external environment spurred by fiscal consolidation, deflating credit and...
2010-08-17Economy / Turkey
Turkey's decision to delay the implementation of the 'fiscal rule' highlights growing risks to the country's macroeconomic profile. Nevertheless, we believe that such risks have already...
2010-08-16Industry
BMI View: We estimate that Ghanaian cocoa production registered a slight y-o-y improvement in 2009/10, helping the global market move into balance in 2009/10 after three consecutive seasons of deficit. In 2010/11, we forecast production to increase again, which will help loosen the market further and support our core view of moderating cocoa prices in H210. We expect Ghanaian production...
2010-09-01Industry
The base metal complex has been buoyed in recent trading by a strong PMI number out of China, which suggested that manufacturing grew at the fastest pace for three months in August....
2010-09-01Industry
Recent price action across the softs complex has reinforced our short and medium-term views on the complex, namely: A strong break and close above USc20.00/lb could give the current...
2010-08-31Economy / Brazil
After last week's strong closes, the Mexican IPC and Brazilian Bovespa equity indices have started the week on the back foot, reinforcing our view that a major correction could be drawing close for both markets.
2010-08-31Economy / Argentina
President Cristina Fernández's demand for a review of the 1976 deal that saw Argentina's largest paper maker sold to some of the country's biggest media companies reinforces our view...
2010-08-26Economy / Mexico
The Mexican peso has been hit harder than most regional currencies in recent trading, and with risk aversion still gripping global markets we anticipate further short-term losses against...
2010-08-24Economy / Nigeria
The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) decision to reweight the consumer price index in July does not alter our average inflation forecasts of 11.8% in 2010, and 11.1% in 2011. Although fiscal and monetary conditions will remain loose, this will not translate into higher inflation until bank lending shows more convincing signs of reviva
2010-08-26Economy / Bahrain
Our long-held view that Bahrain's fiscal and financial troubles had not been fully priced into bond yields has been given added weight today, at least in the eyes of the market, with...
2010-08-23Economy / Cote d'Ivoire
In light of the latest rally in Sub-Saharan African eurobonds, we reiterate our view that both Ghana and Gabon have reached a top. That being the case, we continue to favour instruments...
2010-08-23
