Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) provides subscribers with the latest analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equity markets and global funds across Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Produced by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, EMM systematically covers the latest market developments for each region.
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Economy / Myanmar
The election laws announced by the State Peace and Development Council regime on March 9 have confirmed our expectations that the military junta aims to stay in power following elections to be held in H210. However, the transfer of state assets to business interests affiliated with top generals indicates that a gradual transition towards more democratic rule may be underway.
2010-03-11Economy / Vietnam
Recent data has reinforced our view that consumer price inflation, at 8.5% y-o-y in February, could break into double digits as early as March. A prolonged delay by the authorities...
2010-03-08Economy / South Korea
On a fundamental basis, the KRW has a lot going for it. However, we believe that the appreciatory bias suggested by South Korea's attractive fundamental picture will be tapered by...
2010-03-03Economy / Ukraine
The Ukrainian hryvnia has remained relatively stable since Q309, with the unit trading within a narrow band of UAH7.9510-8.1000/US$ since November. That the currency has not depreciated further throughout the economy's acute recession is primarily a reflection of both ongoing capital controls, in addition to sustained interventions on the foreign exchange market by the National...
2010-03-10Economy / Turkey
The spike in Turkish headline inflation in February is not expected to fundamentally alter the country's monetary policy outlook, with the majority of the rise accounted for by statistical...
2010-03-04Economy / Czech Republic
Our European market outlook continues to go in our favour, with bullish calls on the Polish zloty, Russian rouble and long-end Czech treasuries playing out further through to March...
2010-03-03Commodities
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly WASDE report yesterday, which set the bearish tone for this morning's trade. The WASDE report highlighted upwards revisions to global supply figures and ending stocks for corn, wheat and soybean, which has weighed on prices. Furthermore, we are growing increasingly concerned that grain prices could remain...
2010-03-11Commodities
The current rally in base metal prices from their February lows looks to have further to run. Last week we highlighted that although technical patterns across the complex were promising,...
2010-03-10Commodities
March barley looks set to continue edging down towards the CAD130.00/tonne area over coming weeks. While, the front-month contract has been steadily weakening since spiking sharply...
2010-03-10Economy / Peru
Having brought an end to sideways trading against the US dollar with a break through key resistance at PEN2.8400/US$ at the beginning of March, on a technical basis the Peruvian sol looks ripe for further appreciation. Peru's external environment lends additional weight to this view, with strong commodity prices and the return of global risk appetite indicating that a period of...
2010-03-10Economy / Brazil
Risk appetite made a striking comeback towards the end of last week, and we are turning outright bullish Brazilian stocks and the Mexican peso, initiating both views in our Key Market...
2010-03-08Economy / Brazil
A renewed boost of confidence in Brazil's economy has seen the government's US$ Global 2027 bond rally in recent trading, with the yield on the instrument compressing towards 6.1%...
2010-03-02Economy / Angola
We believe the authorities will be able to hold the Angolan kwanza steady at AOA90.00/US$ over the coming months, even if the rapid expansion of domestic credit will keep the exchange rate under downside pressure.
2010-03-11Economy
Our last Sovereign Risk Ratings (SRR) update came against a turbulent moment in Middle Eastern debt markets: we went to print on December 7 2009, two weeks after Dubai World (DW)...
2010-03-11Political Risk / Libya
We have been following recent developments in Libya with growing concern. Libyan Leader Muammar Qadhafi has ratcheted up his rhetoric against the West amid an ongoing row with Switzerland,...
2010-03-09



