Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) provides subscribers with the latest analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equity markets and global funds across Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Produced by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, EMM systematically covers the latest market developments for each region.
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Economy / China
Despite a substantial market correction in recent weeks, we continue to hold a broadly bearish stance towards Asian equity markets, with many key indices across the region making decisive breaks below their 200-day moving averages. While we could see markets take a breather - or even bounce short term - a combination of poor technicals, sovereign risk contagion and a stuttering...
2010-02-08Economy / Vietnam
With market conditions once again piling up against the Vietnamese dong, we see the government effecting another devaluation of the unit to the vicinity of VND19,000-19,200/US$ before...
2010-02-05Economy / Indonesia
We see only limited to Vietnam's external debt position in spite of increased foreign indebtedness and expectations of further devalutions in 2010. A comparatively low debt pile,...
2010-02-04Economy / Serbia
With the Serbian dinar remaining firmly within a depreciatory trendchannel since November 2009, and pushing through a key level of support at RSD97.00/EUR in early January, the near-term outlook for the currency is certainly weak. Indeed, having fallen to a new record low of RSD98.94/EUR at one point on February 4, the currency appears set for further depreciation over the coming...
2010-02-04Economy / Poland
Having retested major resistance at PLN4.0500/EUR in mid-January (a level which has remained a major obstacle to further appreciation since August 2009), the Polish zloty has since...
2010-01-26Economy / Czech Republic
Having held trendline support in the CZK26.30-26.40/EUR area in mid to late-December, the technical picture is broadly supportive of koruna appreciation over the short term. On the...
2010-01-21Commodities
Core View: The recent decline in risk appetite and the concomitant sell-off in markets, has prompted us to downwardly revise our average price forecast for lead prices in 2010. We now anticipate lead will average US$2,300/tonne in 2010, down from out previous forecast of US$2,400/tonne. That said, we have left our average forecast of US$2,500/tonne unchanged in 2011. Three-month...
2010-02-08Commodities
Commodity markets are trading up this morning, likely on the back the strong close in the Dow Jones late on Friday as well as the slightly weaker US dollar this morning. This backdrop,...
2010-02-08Commodities
We see potential for a modest short-term bounce in grain prices. Firstly, grain markets held up relatively well amidst broad-based commodity weakness last week. As a result, they...
2010-02-08Economy / Brazil
Regular readers of the Latin America Daily Financial Alert will be familiar with our bearish stance on Brazil's US dollar debt. Since initiating our bearish US$ Global 2027 position in our Key Market Views portfolio on January 26, we have seen implied gains of 2.5%, and continue to target a price level of 140.00 on the bond. The view is underpinned by our belief that considerable...
2010-02-08Economy / Brazil
After taking a heavy beating against a host of currencies in recent weeks, the Brazilian real looks set for some near-term retracement as selling pressure on the unit seems to be...
2010-02-02Economy / Chile
We highlighted yesterday that the recent uptick in global risk aversion amid Chinese monetary tightening and proposals for potentially far-reaching banking sector reform has seen...
2010-01-27Economy / Bahrain
A spate of bad news concerning the liquidity crisis of
2010-02-08Economy / South Africa
BMI View: The South African rand looks set for a spell of short-term weakness on the back of US dollar strength and waning risk appetite. Meanwhile, the rand looks set to continue...
2010-02-08Economy / United Arab Emirates
Yesterday's market turmoil has sent the euro tumbling back through support at US$1.3750/EUR, a development which could herald a period of renewed risk aversion, depending on today's...
2010-02-05
