Weekly coverage of fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equities and funds across emerging markets
Key global themes that BMI expects to play out in 2018 include a divergence between developed and emerging market economic growth, US-led conflict over trade and potentially with North Korea, and a regulatory backlash over disruptive technologies.
The Kenyan shilling is likely to see increased stability in the coming months given greater confidence in the country's political outlook. That said, this will not deter the shilling's long-term...
BMI View: Turkey's very strong year-on-year GDP growth rate in Q317 was flattered by base effects from a contraction in Q316, while growth actually slowed in quarter-on-quarter terms, indicating a loss of momentum. Nevertheless, government stimulus has heightened overheating risks, and the current pace of growth is unsustainable.
Unsustainable debt burdens in many of Russia's regional government balance sheets will threaten long-term fiscal sustainability and weigh on economic growth, potentially leading to a shake-up of...
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will benefit from improving macroeconomic dynamics in the year ahead, largely on the back of continued gains in the hydrocarbon sector. That said, political...
The Banco Central do Brazil will extend its rate cutting cycle into Q118, as it seeks to support economic activity amid low inflation. Rates will remain on hold in the quarters thereafter as inflat...
We forecast Bulgarian loan growth to remain on an upward trajectory, as household and non-financial corporate borrowing demand continues to increase in line with the country's robust economic...
We continue to think that US stocks are extremely overvalued, and are neutral with regard to EM equities. That said, we see pockets of value in the UK, Greece and Japanese banks. Short-end yields...
We are bearish on Brent given strong supply growth and weakening seasonal demand, despite OPEC's decision to extend oil market intervention to the end of 2018. We maintain our 2018 Brent and WTI...
We have raised our zinc price forecast slightly, to USD2,800/tonne, in 2017 and 2018, following stronger-than-expected economic growth in China over Q317 that has driven a sustained rally in indust...