Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) provides subscribers with the latest analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities, equity markets and global funds across Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Produced by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, EMM systematically covers the latest market developments for each region.
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Economy
The Taiwanese economy is holding up decently, despite surging inflation and threats to its mighty export industry due to waning demand for the country's products in G3 markets. Today's unemployment figures surprised on the upside, with the seasonally adjusted rate shrinking to 3.88% from 3.89% in May. Warming cross-Strait ties, as evidenced by the resumption of direct flights...
2008-07-22Economy / Hong Kong
Despite rallying strongly today on the back of better-than-anticipated Q208 results from Citigroup , we retain our view that Asian equities will remain under pressure over the medium...
2008-07-21Economy / Vietnam
BMI View: Vietnam's decision to raise domestic fuel prices by 31% is a dangerous move. While the increase in petrol, diesel and fuel oil prices will help to reduce the fiscal and...
2008-07-21Economy / Hungary
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) held its policy rate at 8.50% for the second consecutive month at its monetary council meeting on July 21. According to a statement from Deputy NBH Governor Ferenc Karvalits, the council discussed all options for the base rate including cutting. This was a marked departure from the tightening bias reported from previous meetings in 2008. To...
2008-07-22Economy / Bosnia-Herzegovina
The macroeconomic challenges we highlighted in our last quarterly Emerging Europe sovereign risk ratings update have escalated further in the second quarter, with little sign of easing...
2008-07-17Economy / Ukraine
Having lost 47.9% of its value since January 1, Ukraine's PFTSI equity index has firmly broken through our 675 downside target, to at one point trade at 610 on July 17. We believe...
2008-07-17Economy / Malaysia
Rapidly rising inflation and a swiftly deteriorating political climate pose significant downside risks to Malaysian equities and the MYR over the medium term. We caution that both asset classes - which to date have held up relatively well - now look set for a period of weakness, as price growth takes off and Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi comes increasingly close to a premature...
2008-06-19Economy / Brazil
Since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in 2003, the Brazilian real has shown few signs of weakening. As the real continues to take out key target levels, now hovering...
2008-06-18Economy
From a technical perspective, the recent break of resistance suggests that soy prices could be headed for a run towards the March highs of 1,600 US cents per bushel (USc/Bsh). The...
2008-06-06Economy / Ecuador
Once again, political headlines rather than economic fundamentals are helping to drive down the price of Ecuadorian debt, with the US$ Global 30 bond reaching a nine-month low of 89.25 on July 21. This price decline followed comments by the new Finance Minister, Wilma Salgado, questioning the legality of Ecuador's debt.
2008-07-22Economy / Argentina
We believe that decision by Argentine President Cristina Fernández to rescind the sliding-scale export tax will be welcomed by investors. We had previously argued that a moderation...
2008-07-21Economy / Brazil
These are turbulent days for emerging market stocks and even Brazil, with its sound macroeconomic fundamentals and still upbeat investor sentiment, no longer seems immune to bouts...
2008-07-21Economy / Syria
A poor harvest that leaves Syria needing to import wheat supplies will negatively impact the current account. In the long term we expect the current account deficits to grow, primarily due to declining oil
2008-07-18Economy / Ghana
The Bank of Ghana (BoG)'s monetary policy committee has a difficult job on its hands, having to balance the need for aggressive interest rate tightening against deteriorating macroeconomic...
2008-07-18Economy / Madagascar
Madagascar's ariary has gained over 12.0% in recent months, and is now testing nine-month trendline resistance at MGA1,550.00/US$, potentially setting up further gains. Encouraged...
2008-07-17
