Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) provides subscribers with the latest analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities and equity markets across Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Produced by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, EMM systematically covers the latest market developments for each region.
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Economy / China
BMI View: China's money markets are starting to exhibit signs of serious distress within the banking sector, putting China's new regime in an almost impossible situation. Should the authorities decide against injecting yet more liquidity into the system, this would bring into focus the huge asset-liability mismatches and poor balance sheet health of China's major banks, leading...
2013-06-20Finance / Bangladesh
Our bullish 'MSCI Malaysia over MSCI South East Asia' view is up 6.9%. These gains have been driven by the recent declines in the likes of the Thai SET and the Philippines Composite...
2013-06-04Finance / Bangladesh
Indonesia's 5-year credit default swaps (CD) are finally starting to mover considerably. From 121 basis points (bps) when we initiated our call, we have seen spreads gradually widen...
2013-06-03Economy
BMI View: We believe Emerging European credit default swaps (CDS) markets could be in for a significant re-pricing over the next few months if the EU's ban on naked CDS trading is revoked. The ban has been the main factor behind persistent anomalies between our proprietary sovereign risk ratings and regional CDS markets over recent quarters, meaning the CDS spread between several...
2013-05-23Economy / Turkey
Recent monetary policy decisions imply that Turkey's central bank is becoming more concerned about supporting growth than aiding the rebalancing process, and as a result we are turning...
2013-02-21Economy / Bosnia-Herzegovina
BMI View: A better external environment has improved emerging Europe's sovereign outlook for 2013, but we see greater potential for relative value plays in regional credit default swap...
2013-01-31Finance / Japan
We have initiated a tactical bearish position on Japan's Topix in our key market views folder at today's open of 948.52. This call is largely based on the technicals, with the impressive bull-run in play since last November showing signs of exhaustion. Firstly, as the chart below shows, the index failed to break above its pre-tsunami high of 980.00 earlier this month. Secondly,...
2013-02-15Economy / Brazil
The consolidation in global equity markets could have further to run in the near term, as bullish momentum in January has come a long way. Technical breaks below support on key regional...
2013-02-11Economy / Brazil
We remain bullish Brazilian and Colombian energy stocks in our regional asset class strategy. This informs our bullish view on Colombia's IGBC index and Bogotá-listed Pacific...
2012-12-27Economy / Argentina
The black-market exchange rate of pesos for US dollars paid in Argentina, also known as the "blue" rate, has begun to weaken again, in line with our view that government efforts would be insufficient to combat depreciatory pressure on the Argentine peso until the authorities substantially revalue the currency. The Argentine government launched a concerted effort...
2013-07-18Economy / Chile
We maintain our view that a slowdown in the Chilean consumer in 2013 will weigh on the performance of equities in this sector, removing the support that has helped prevent...
2013-06-05Economy / Ecuador
We believe that US dollar strength over the coming years will negatively affect Ecuador's trade competitiveness, compounding a weakening of the country's external accounts. However,...
2013-06-05Economy / South Africa
South Africa's economic prospects have deteriorated amid rapid currency depreciation and rising tensions in the critical mining sector. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014, with risks weighted firmly to the downside.
2013-06-21Economy / South Africa
The recent sharp depreciation of the rand will likely feed through to higher inflation via elevated import costs. Consequently, we have altered our outlook for monetary policy and now...
2013-06-07Economy / South Africa
The South African rand has enjoyed a sharp recovery following its precipitous fall through the psychologically important ZAR10.0000/US$ level, but we believe that the retracement will...
2013-06-04
