A recent rally in Latin American sovereign bonds has run out of steam, and we expect yields to head higher in the coming months. Relatively weak macroeconomic fundamentals and upside pressure on bond yields from US monetary policy normalisation are also likely to see credit risk tick up in Central America and the Caribbean.
Economic growth in Bulgaria will gradually accelerate over the coming years as higher household consumption and rising fixed investment keep the nascent recovery on track. The biggest risk to an improvement in domestic demand comes from ongoing deflation in the economy.
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