We think the dollar has likely topped out in broad trade-weighted terms, particularly when measured in total returns, but we do not expect a bear market to ensue. We remain fundamentally bearish on the the yuan, which is one of the main components of the USD's trade-weighted index. Weakness in the currency is likely to resume in the near term. That said, we continue to see EM FX excluding the...
Latin American central banks will largely pursue dovish monetary policy in 2017 in a bid to stimulate growth. That said, the risks of shifts in US economic policy and reflation will lead to some policy divergence, particularly in Mexico, as officials guard against currency weakness and rising price pressures.
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