Political Risk Analysis - Expropriation Reinforces Investment Risks - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Tanzania / Political Risk
A recent dispute between the Tanzanian government and the London-listed mining company Petra Diamonds highlights the challenging operating environment in Tanzania. This will further weaken the...
Economic Analysis - Growth Will Recover In 2018 - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Namibia / Economy
Economic activity will accelerate over the coming quarters in Namibia, having struggled with significant fiscal constraints and limited investment in 2017. Major increases in mining output and...
Economic Analysis - Unorthodox Financing Plan Will Raise Political Risk - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Algeria / Economy
The reappointment of Ahmed Ouyahia as prime minister of Algeria, and the launch of a new economic plan, signals that that the government will strive harder to cut spending in a bid to narrow its...
Economic Analysis - Forecasts Revised Down On Election Uncertainty - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Kenya / Economy
We have revised down our forecasts for real GDP growth in Kenya over 2017 and 2018, as political uncertainty following the annulled presidential election will weigh on business sentiment. That...
Currency Forecast - AOA: Mounting Pressure Will Encourage Further Devaluation In 2018 - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Angola / Economy
Above target inflation and concerns over social instability will see Angola's central bank maintain the kwanza's official peg to the US dollar over the next six months. That being said, the currenc...
Political Risk Analysis - Dos Santos To Depart, But Little Policy Change Post-Election - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Angola / Political Risk
Angola's governing MPLA is on course to retain its majority in the August 23 legislative election, a vote that is set to also usher in the country's first new president in over 37 years as Jose...
Economic Analysis - Hydrocarbon Exports Will Narrow Current Account Deficit - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Ghana / Economy
Ghana's current account deficit will narrow over the coming years due to significant increases in exports of hydrocarbons and tepid growth in imports. The narrowing current account surplus alongsid...
Economic Analysis - Easing Cycle At An End Despite Falling Inflation - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Uganda / Economy
Although we believe that inflation will continue to decline over coming months, we think that the Bank of Uganda has reached the end of its easing cycle given low real yields and little pass throug...
Economic Analysis - Low Inflation Will Prompt Further Rate Cuts - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Botswana / Economy
Inflation will remain close to the bottom floor of Botswana's inflation target over the coming months, as low fuel and food prices temper the country's consumer basket. This will see the central...
Political Risk Analysis - Failing National Dialogue Leaves South Sudan With Few Options - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Sudan / Economy
The failure of opposition factions to participate in South Sudan's government-led National Dialogue will leave few options for renewed implementation of the 2015 peace deal. Going forward, we note...