Currency Forecast - AOA: Mounting Pressure Will Encourage Further Devaluation In 2018 - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Angola / Economy
Above target inflation and concerns over social instability will see Angola's central bank maintain the kwanza's official peg to the US dollar over the next six months. That being said, the currenc...
Economic Analysis - Hydrocarbon Exports Will Narrow Current Account Deficit - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Ghana / Economy
Ghana's current account deficit will narrow over the coming years due to significant increases in exports of hydrocarbons and tepid growth in imports. The narrowing current account surplus alongsid...
Political Risk Analysis - Dos Santos To Depart, But Little Policy Change Post-Election - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Angola / Political Risk
Angola's governing MPLA is on course to retain its majority in the August 23 legislative election, a vote that is set to also usher in the country's first new president in over 37 years as Jose...
Economic Analysis - Easing Cycle At An End Despite Falling Inflation - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Uganda / Economy
Although we believe that inflation will continue to decline over coming months, we think that the Bank of Uganda has reached the end of its easing cycle given low real yields and little pass throug...
Economic Analysis - Low Inflation Will Prompt Further Rate Cuts - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Botswana / Economy
Inflation will remain close to the bottom floor of Botswana's inflation target over the coming months, as low fuel and food prices temper the country's consumer basket. This will see the central...
Political Risk Analysis - Failing National Dialogue Leaves South Sudan With Few Options - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Sudan / Economy
The failure of opposition factions to participate in South Sudan's government-led National Dialogue will leave few options for renewed implementation of the 2015 peace deal. Going forward, we note...
Currency Forecast - Shilling Set For Modest Losses - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling looks set to continue along its ongoing depreciatory trend over the coming quarters, driven by higher inflation and concerns over the government's growing debt burden amongst...
Currency Forecast - ZAR: Rally Nearing Its End - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand's multi-quarter rally is likely nearing an end, in the face of cooling market sentiment toward EM FX and a gradual shift toward monetary easing in South Africa. Over the long...
Political Risk Analysis - New Cabinet Reinforces Likelihood Of An Election Delay - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Congo / Economy
President Joseph Kabila announced a new cabinet on May 9 for Democratic Republic of Congo, naming a list of more than 50 ministers and deputy ministers. The composition of the new cabinet further...
Economic Analysis - UEMOA Inflation Will See Slow Rise - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Cote d`Ivoire / Economy
Inflation will tick up slowly in C?te d'Ivoire and the rest of UEMOA in 2017 and beyond, driven by currency weakness and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, monetary policy rates will be kept on...