Political Risk Analysis - Dos Santos To Depart, But Little Policy Change Post-Election - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Angola / Political Risk
Angola's governing MPLA is on course to retain its majority in the August 23 legislative election, a vote that is set to also usher in the country's first new president in over 37 years as Jose...
Economic Analysis - Hydrocarbon Exports Will Narrow Current Account Deficit - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Ghana / Economy
Ghana's current account deficit will narrow over the coming years due to significant increases in exports of hydrocarbons and tepid growth in imports. The narrowing current account surplus alongsid...
Economic Analysis - Key Policy Rate On Hold Until 2018 - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Mozambique / Economy
The Banco de Mo?ambique will put on hold any further monetary stimulus until economic conditions have stabilised. Despite cooling inflation and a more benign outlook for the local currency, concern...
Economic Analysis - Fears Of Disorderly Depreciation Overblown - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Morocco / Economy
The Moroccan authorities' decision to delay the first phase of dirham liberalisation points to risks of speculation on a sharp depreciation of the currency. That said, strong economic fundamentals...
Economic Analysis - Low Inflation Will Prompt Further Rate Cuts - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Botswana / Economy
Inflation will remain close to the bottom floor of Botswana's inflation target over the coming months, as low fuel and food prices temper the country's consumer basket. This will see the central...
Economic Analysis - Easing Cycle At An End Despite Falling Inflation - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Uganda / Economy
Although we believe that inflation will continue to decline over coming months, we think that the Bank of Uganda has reached the end of its easing cycle given low real yields and little pass throug...
Economic Analysis - Textile Sector Investment Offers Long-Term Growth Potential - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Madagascar / Economy
Government efforts to incentivise investment into Madagascar's textile sector will offer long-term tailwinds to growth. While the economy will remain vulnerable to climate change and structurally...
Political Risk Analysis - Failing National Dialogue Leaves South Sudan With Few Options - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Sudan / Economy
The failure of opposition factions to participate in South Sudan's government-led National Dialogue will leave few options for renewed implementation of the 2015 peace deal. Going forward, we note...
Currency Forecast - Shilling Set For Modest Losses - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling looks set to continue along its ongoing depreciatory trend over the coming quarters, driven by higher inflation and concerns over the government's growing debt burden amongst...
Currency Forecast - ZAR: Rally Nearing Its End - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand's multi-quarter rally is likely nearing an end, in the face of cooling market sentiment toward EM FX and a gradual shift toward monetary easing in South Africa. Over the long...