Argentina Analysis

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Market Strategy - Deal With Holdouts Likely In Coming Weeks - 21 JULY 2014

We continue to believe that Argentina is likely to reach a negotiated settlement with holdout investors, those who have refused restructuring offers on outstanding defaulted sovereign debt, and evidence that this view is playing out is fuelling a broad rally in Argentine financial assets Once reached, such a settlement would substantially de-risk Argentina's restructured sovereign debt, and as...

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Market Strategy - Negotiated Settlement Most Likely Outcome In Bond Fight - 30 JUNE 2014

We believe a negotiated settlement that avoids a bond default represents the most likely outcome to the long-running legal battle in US courts between the Argentine government and bond investors who have refused previous restructuring offers, the so-called 'holdouts'. However, the path forward is unclear at this point, and as such the risk of default on the Argentina's restructured sovereign...

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Economic Analysis - Peso Devaluation Unlikely To Alter Regional Trade Dynamics - 24 FEB 2014

We believe Argentina's recent peso devaluation is unlikely to profoundly alter the patterns of its trade with Mercosur members Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay. Domestic inflation in Argentina will continue to erode the competitiveness of its exports, minimising gains from a weaker spot exchange rate, and the trade relationship is already significantly distorted due to heavy government interventi...

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