Market Strategy - Bullish Mexico Amid Regional Equity Rally - 22 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2016 / Egypt / Economy
A bullish technical picture for emerging market (EM) equities indicates additional upside potential for Latin American stocks over the coming months. While the rally in EM equities is largely attributable to the bounce in global commodities, especially oil prices, as well as recent weakness in the US dollar amid a re-pricing of interest rate expectations, Latin American stocks are benefitting...
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Industry Trend Analysis - Potash Fertilisers: A Primer - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Egypt / Industry
Potash production will remain concentrated among a few large players, who will increasingly compete with each other over the next five years. China is on track to become the world's largest importe...
Economic Analysis - IMF Deal To Offer Some Stability To Economy - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Egypt / Economy
Egypt will conclude a deal with the IMF before the end of 2016 in the region of USD10bn as the country undertakes the required reforms and fiscal pressures mount. The deal will be a welcome relief...
Economic Analysis - Barely Avoiding A Recession In 2016 - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
Relatively elevated growth in the hydrocarbon sector will prevent the Saudi economy to enter a recession in 2016. Nonetheless, the non-oil economy will continue to post negative growth rates over...
Economic Analysis - Further Rate Hikes Will Target Return In Investment - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Nigeria / Economy
The Central Bank of Nigeria will enact a further 200 basis points of hikes over the next six months in a bid to encourage a return in international investment. High structurally driven inflation...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Steady Depreciation Set To Continue - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
The CBTT will continue a steady depreciation of the Trinidadian dollar over the coming quarters in light of its wide external account deficit and falling foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, a...
Economic Analysis - New BCB Governor Will Prioritise Fighting Inflation - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Brazil / Economy
The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), under new governor Ilan Goldfajn, will pursue a prudent policy course over the coming months. The Q216 inflation report released on June 28 and the minutes from...
Economic Analysis - Looser DM Monetary Policy Points To Rate Hold - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / South Africa / Economy
We now expect that the South African Reserve Bank will keep the policy rate on hold in 2016 as a shift toward loose monetary policy in the developed world bolsters the rand and tempers imported...
Economic Analysis - Moderating Price Pressures Support Rate Hold - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Peru / Economy
The Banco Central de Reserva del Per? will maintain a rate-holding cycle through the end of the year as inflation moderates. In 2017, robust economic activity growth will encourage a modest rate...
Political Risk Analysis - Morocco Rejoining The AU: Influence To Increase, Western Sahara Stalemate To Continue - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Morocco / Economy
By rejoining the African Union, Morocco aims to increase its diplomatic reach on the continent. This marks a radical shift from the empty-seat strategy Morocco had adopted since 1984. Rabat will use its newly-found lobbying power to push forward its view on Western Sahara and increase its economic influence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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