Currency Forecast - COP: Further Upside Ahead Alongside Oil - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Colombia / Economy
The Colombian peso will continue to strengthen over the coming months, likely moving into a stronger trading range following a break of key resistance. Rising oil prices and still-high real yields...
Economic Analysis - Global Trade: What Could Go Right? - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Global / Economy
Rising fears about the demise of the global trade regime are well justified, with a rise of populism in developed states spurring increasingly nationalist policymaking and potentially exacerbating...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Steady Depreciation Set To Continue - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
The CBTT will continue a steady depreciation of the Trinidadian dollar over the coming quarters in light of its wide external account deficit and falling foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, a...
Currency Forecast - UGX: Steady But Slower Depreciation Ahead - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / Uganda / Economy
Over the coming two years, the Ugandan shilling will depreciate, albeit at a much slower pace than it did during the 2015 sell-off. The weakness will be driven by rising capital imports and deterioration in the terms of trade.
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Currency Forecast - EGP - Substantial Depreciation On The Horizon - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / Egypt / Economy
The Egyptian pound will gradually depreciate over the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 as the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)'s willingness and ability to support the unit wanes. A weaker currency will...
Economic Analysis - BRL: Near-Term Bounce Unsustainable Without Structural Reform - 12 OCT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor October 2015 / Brazil / Economy
We see scope for an appreciatory bounce in the Brazilian real over the coming months as the government attempts to bolster its credibility in efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit. Beyond three-to-s...
Economic Analysis - Central Bank To Continue Fight Against Kwanza Collapse - 12 OCT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor October 2015 / Angola / Economy
Angola's central bank will continue with its hiking cycle into the first half of 2016 in a bid to tackle rising inflation. Ironically, expected devaluations to the Angolan kwanza by the central...
Economic Analysis - Private Consumption And Exports To Drive Growth Acceleration - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Israel / Economy
Israeli growth will accelerate over the coming quarters, as public spending returns to higher levels, and exports and private consumption fall back in line following lower than expected growth in...
Economic Analysis - 10% Devaluation On The Cards - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Iraq / Economy
The Iraqi dinar will be devalued by 10% in 2016, as the Central Bank is unable to protect the peg amid low oil prices. As a result of the devaluation, the current account and fiscal deficits will...
Economic Analysis - Navigating Through Regional Insecurity - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Jordan / Economy
Despite growing relatively faster than most MENA economies, regional instability and high unemployment levels will weigh on Jordanian economic activity over the coming quarters. As a result, we...