Industry Forecast - Banking Sector: Corporate Sector A Source Of Weakness - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Brazil / Economy
The Brazilian banking sector faces a dim growth outlook over the coming quarters, as political uncertainty weighs on investment decisions and loan demand. Though household deleveraging will offer...
Market Strategy - Break Of Resistance Would Be Bullish Signal - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Brazil / Finance
The MSCI Brazil Index is set to test key technical levels, which could see the index make a break through multi-year downtrend resistance.
Currency Forecast - BRL: Rally Will Fade, But Strength To Remain - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Brazil / Economy
The Brazilian real will largely trade sideways over the coming quarters. High real yields and rising oil prices will buoy the unit, even as positive sentiment adjusts to the country's subdued...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Disinflation Pointing To More Aggressive Rate Cuts - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Brazil / Economy
Rapid disinflation will likely encourage the BCB to increase the pace of its aggressive rate cutting cycle at its next policy meeting on April 12, posing downside risks to our Selic target rate...
Economic Analysis - New BCB Governor Will Prioritise Fighting Inflation - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Brazil / Economy
The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), under new governor Ilan Goldfajn, will pursue a prudent policy course over the coming months. The Q216 inflation report released on June 28 and the minutes from...
Political Risk Analysis - After Rousseff: A Long Road Towards Meaningful Reforms - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Brazil / Political Risk
Brazil's new President Michel Temer will shift economic policy towards the centre in the coming quarters, attempting to address many longstanding concerns of investors. However, we remain sceptical...
Economic Analysis - BRL: Near-Term Bounce Unsustainable Without Structural Reform - 12 OCT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor October 2015 / Brazil / Economy
We see scope for an appreciatory bounce in the Brazilian real over the coming months as the government attempts to bolster its credibility in efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit. Beyond three-to-s...
Economic Analysis - Prolonged Recession Ahead - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Brazil / Economy
Brazil's recession will persist through 2016 as fixed investment and household consumption remain extremely subdued. Weakening business and consumer confidence, rising job losses, and widening...
Market Strategy - Weak Fundamentals To Cap Bovespa Relief Rally - 07 APR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2014 / Brazil / Economy
Key breaks of technical resistance suggest that the recent rally in Brazil's benchmark Bovespa equity index could have further to run in the next few weeks. However, with the index currently strugg...
Industry Trend Analysis - Coffee To Remain Most Affected By Droughts - 03 MAR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2014 / Brazil / Industry
Coffee production is likely to be the most affected by the recent droughts in Brazil. Still, the surge in coffee prices has been exaggerated by a recent spike in net speculative positions, and we...