Political Risk Analysis - Failing National Dialogue Leaves South Sudan With Few Options - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Sudan / Economy
The failure of opposition factions to participate in South Sudan's government-led National Dialogue will leave few options for renewed implementation of the 2015 peace deal. Going forward, we note...
Political Risk Analysis - Iraq And Syria: Prospects For The Conflicts - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Middle East / Political Risk
The fall of Mosul will mark the end of Islamic State holding territory in Iraq, but this is no panacea for the country's political turmoil. In Syria, the fighting will escalate over the coming...
Political Risk Analysis - Morocco Rejoining The AU: Influence To Increase, Western Sahara Stalemate To Continue - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Morocco / Economy
By rejoining the African Union, Morocco aims to increase its diplomatic reach on the continent. This marks a radical shift from the empty-seat strategy Morocco had adopted since 1984. Rabat will use its newly-found lobbying power to push forward its view on Western Sahara and increase its economic influence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Political Risk Analysis - Little Hope For Improvement Despite IS Setback - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / Iraq / Economy
Military progress against Islamic State in Iraq is no panacea for the country's protracted political crisis. Increasing poverty, sectarian tensions and power struggles are among the main factors...
Political Risk Analysis - Further Change Coming Following Government Reshuffle - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The recent overhaul of key political positions in Saudi Arabia is the first in a series of changes, as the country prepares to implement its Vision 2030 plan. While Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin...
Political Risk Analysis - Refugee Crisis To Impact Stability, Not Fiscal Outlook - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan will manage to cover the economic costs induced by the Syrian refugee crisis, thanks to international assistance and by closing its border with Syria. Nevertheless, social tensions will...
Political Risk Analysis - Syria To Raise Russia-West Tensions; Moscow Risks Long War - 12 OCT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor October 2015 / Global / Economy
Russia's apparent prioritisation of targeting Western-backed Syrian rebels over Islamic State will raise tensions with the West, although the latter will largely be powerless to halt Moscow's...
Economic Analysis - Private Consumption And Exports To Drive Growth Acceleration - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Israel / Economy
Israeli growth will accelerate over the coming quarters, as public spending returns to higher levels, and exports and private consumption fall back in line following lower than expected growth in...
Political Risk Analysis - Russian 'Intervention' In Syria To Be Curbed By Huge Risks - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Global / Economy
Russia will step up its support for Syria's Assad regime, but will refrain from significant combat operations, due to the risks involved. These include retaliation by Islamic State, an open-ended...
Political Risk Analysis - Nuclear Talks: Protracted Negotiations Likely - 03 MAR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2014 / Iran / Economy
Iran and the so-called P5+1 countries - China, France, Russia, the UK and the US plus Germany - agreed during talks in Vienna on a timetable for negotiating an end to the confrontation over the...