Currency Forecast - COP: Further Upside Ahead Alongside Oil - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Colombia / Economy
The Colombian peso will continue to strengthen over the coming months, likely moving into a stronger trading range following a break of key resistance. Rising oil prices and still-high real yields...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - Reconstruction Supporting Growth Uptick, But No Boom Ahead - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iraq / Economy
The reconstruction of Iraq's damaged infrastructure and the recapture of Mosul by the Iraqi army will support fixed investment and private consumption growth in 2017, while the recovery in oil...
Economic Analysis - Economy Recovering But Growth Insufficient For Population Boom - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Niger / Economy
Nigerien real GDP growth will increase in 2017 and 2018 as agriculture production rises and trade improves with neighbouring Nigeria. However, strong population growth means that this improvement...
Economic Analysis - Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Below Consensus On Saudi As Production Cuts Hit - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Middle East / Economy
We maintain our below-consensus growth forecast for Saudi Arabia, as we expect the economy to contract by 0.2% in 2017, against growth of 0.9% according to Bloomberg consensus.
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Economic Analysis - Public-Led Investment Will Drive Growth - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Gabon / Economy
The Gabonese economy will maintain robust growth over the coming years, driven by public-led investments and supported by rising oil prices. That said, the risk of unrest and strained relationships...
Economic Analysis - Barely Avoiding A Recession In 2016 - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
Relatively elevated growth in the hydrocarbon sector will prevent the Saudi economy to enter a recession in 2016. Nonetheless, the non-oil economy will continue to post negative growth rates over...
Economic Analysis - IMF Deal To Offer Some Stability To Economy - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Egypt / Economy
Egypt will conclude a deal with the IMF before the end of 2016 in the region of USD10bn as the country undertakes the required reforms and fiscal pressures mount. The deal will be a welcome relief...
Economic Analysis - Export Slowdown Weighing On Economic Activity - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Israel / Economy
Israel's economic activity will be affected by weaknesses in the exports sector amid a slowdown in global trade, adverse foreign exchange movements and industry-specific difficulties. A strong...