Economic Analysis - Rate Cuts Not Quite Finished - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Brazil / Economy
The Banco Central do Brazil will extend its rate cutting cycle into Q118, as it seeks to support economic activity amid low inflation. Rates will remain on hold in the quarters thereafter as inflat...
Economic Analysis - Trump's Pressure Could Lead To More Clarity In China's Trade Policies - 25 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / China / Economy
Pressure from the US could force China to provide more clarity regarding the latter's plans to liberalise its markets, which is likely to lead to a pick-up in the pace of opening up. That said, China will want to have control over the pace and process, which could still lead to an escalation of trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile, we believe that the financial sector will be a key focus for...
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Economic Analysis - Rate Cuts To Resume As Expectations Come In - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Argentina / Economy
The Banco Central de la Rep?blica Argentina will resume a rate cutting cycle by end-2017, as disinflation takes hold. Although inflation will end 2017 above the bank's target, price growth will...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Debt Deal Averts Chaotic Default - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Belize / Economy
Belize renegotiated the terms of its USD530mn 2038 'Superbond', lowering its coupon payments and delaying principal payments. The deal will allow the country to avert a potentially chaotic default...
Currency Forecast - EGP: IMF Deal And Portfolio Flows Will Provide Floor For Currency - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Egypt / Economy
The Egyptian pound will bottom at around current levels following significant depreciation over the last three months as rising reserves suggest that supply and demand are balanced at current...
Economic Analysis - Public-Led Investment Will Drive Growth - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Gabon / Economy
The Gabonese economy will maintain robust growth over the coming years, driven by public-led investments and supported by rising oil prices. That said, the risk of unrest and strained relationships...
Economic Analysis - EM Reform Tracker: Fiscal Reform High On The Agenda - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Global / Economy
Over the past month, we have seen slow but steady business friendly reform in several emerging markets. Most notable was continued fiscal reform in India and Brazil; moves to further privatize...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Devaluation Likely Amid Rising Pressures - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
The CBTT will gradually devalue the Trinidadian dollar in 2017 in response to significant pressure on the country's external and fiscal accounts. A more substantial devaluation is likely in the...