Economic Analysis - Trump's Pressure Could Lead To More Clarity In China's Trade Policies - 25 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / China / Economy
Pressure from the US could force China to provide more clarity regarding the latter's plans to liberalise its markets, which is likely to lead to a pick-up in the pace of opening up. That said, China will want to have control over the pace and process, which could still lead to an escalation of trade tensions with the US. Meanwhile, we believe that the financial sector will be a key focus for...
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Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Debt Deal Averts Chaotic Default - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Belize / Economy
Belize renegotiated the terms of its USD530mn 2038 'Superbond', lowering its coupon payments and delaying principal payments. The deal will allow the country to avert a potentially chaotic default...
Economic Analysis - Public-Led Investment Will Drive Growth - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Gabon / Economy
The Gabonese economy will maintain robust growth over the coming years, driven by public-led investments and supported by rising oil prices. That said, the risk of unrest and strained relationships...
Economic Analysis - EM Reform Tracker: Fiscal Reform High On The Agenda - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Global / Economy
Over the past month, we have seen slow but steady business friendly reform in several emerging markets. Most notable was continued fiscal reform in India and Brazil; moves to further privatize...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Devaluation Likely Amid Rising Pressures - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
The CBTT will gradually devalue the Trinidadian dollar in 2017 in response to significant pressure on the country's external and fiscal accounts. A more substantial devaluation is likely in the...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Disinflation Continues Apace - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Argentina / Economy
Inflation in Buenos Aires, a proxy for Argentina as a whole, fell to 41.0% y-o-y in December, bringing annual average inflation to 41.2%. The BCRA held its new benchmark interest rate at 24.7...
Market Strategy - Sovereign Default Is Likely In 2017 - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid an unabated economic crisis and soaring political tensions, we believe the probability of Venezuela defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations in 2017 exceeds 50%. Venezuela is unlikely to...
Economic Analysis - IMF Deal To Offer Some Stability To Economy - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Egypt / Economy
Egypt will conclude a deal with the IMF before the end of 2016 in the region of USD10bn as the country undertakes the required reforms and fiscal pressures mount. The deal will be a welcome relief...