Economic Analysis - Rate Cuts To Resume As Expectations Come In - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Argentina / Economy
The Banco Central de la Rep?blica Argentina will resume a rate cutting cycle by end-2017, as disinflation takes hold. Although inflation will end 2017 above the bank's target, price growth will...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Debt Deal Averts Chaotic Default - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Belize / Economy
Belize renegotiated the terms of its USD530mn 2038 'Superbond', lowering its coupon payments and delaying principal payments. The deal will allow the country to avert a potentially chaotic default...
Economic Analysis - Public-Led Investment Will Drive Growth - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Gabon / Economy
The Gabonese economy will maintain robust growth over the coming years, driven by public-led investments and supported by rising oil prices. That said, the risk of unrest and strained relationships...
Economic Analysis - EM Reform Tracker: Fiscal Reform High On The Agenda - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Global / Economy
Over the past month, we have seen slow but steady business friendly reform in several emerging markets. Most notable was continued fiscal reform in India and Brazil; moves to further privatize...
Currency Forecast - TTD: Devaluation Likely Amid Rising Pressures - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Trinidad & Tobago / Economy
The CBTT will gradually devalue the Trinidadian dollar in 2017 in response to significant pressure on the country's external and fiscal accounts. A more substantial devaluation is likely in the...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Disinflation Continues Apace - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Argentina / Economy
Inflation in Buenos Aires, a proxy for Argentina as a whole, fell to 41.0% y-o-y in December, bringing annual average inflation to 41.2%. The BCRA held its new benchmark interest rate at 24.7...
Market Strategy - Sovereign Default Is Likely In 2017 - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid an unabated economic crisis and soaring political tensions, we believe the probability of Venezuela defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations in 2017 exceeds 50%. Venezuela is unlikely to...
Economic Analysis - IMF Deal To Offer Some Stability To Economy - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Egypt / Economy
Egypt will conclude a deal with the IMF before the end of 2016 in the region of USD10bn as the country undertakes the required reforms and fiscal pressures mount. The deal will be a welcome relief...