Economic Analysis - Rising Inflation Will Not Alter BCN Policy - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Nicaragua / Economy
We expect the Banco Central de Nicaragua will continue to devalue the c?rdoba at a steady pace in the next two years, in spite of spiking consumer price inflation. Inflation will be driven by...
Economic Analysis - Quick View - Dovish Stance Will Be Tested By Persistent Inflation - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Peru / Economy
On May 11, the BCRP unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4.00%
Economic Analysis - Austerity Measures To Lower Debt Ratio From 2018 - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan's public debt will reduce as a proportion of GDP from 2018 onwards, as austerity measures and sizeable foreign aid inflows improve the kingdom's fiscal balance. A shift towards reliance on...
Economic Analysis - Q1 Pace Of Deficit Reduction Will Not Be Sustained - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
Saudi Arabia's Q1 budget performance underpins our view for easing fiscal pressures in 2017 and for continued effort to improve the management of public finances. However, the pace of deficit...
Political Risk Analysis - New Cabinet Reinforces Likelihood Of An Election Delay - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Congo / Economy
President Joseph Kabila announced a new cabinet on May 9 for Democratic Republic of Congo, naming a list of more than 50 ministers and deputy ministers. The composition of the new cabinet further...
Economic Analysis - Credit Risks To Increase As Regulatory Tightening Continues - 15 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / China / Economy
Any policy missteps by the Chinese government in curbing leverage could lead to continued onshore bond sell-off and potentially spill over to the US dollar bond market, considering the dominance of Chinese investors in the offshore market. Additionally, we expect the number of defaults to rise in the coming months due to increasing refinancing needs coupled with rising borrowing costs and...
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Economic Analysis - UEMOA Inflation Will See Slow Rise - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Cote d`Ivoire / Economy
Inflation will tick up slowly in C?te d'Ivoire and the rest of UEMOA in 2017 and beyond, driven by currency weakness and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, monetary policy rates will be kept on...
Currency Forecast - COP: Further Upside Ahead Alongside Oil - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Colombia / Economy
The Colombian peso will continue to strengthen over the coming months, likely moving into a stronger trading range following a break of key resistance. Rising oil prices and still-high real yields...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Commodity Strategy - Commodity-Driven Inflation Has Peaked - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Global / Economy
The boost that rising commodity prices are providing to global inflation is peaking and will gradually subside in the coming quarters.