Economic Analysis - Key Themes For 2018 - 01 JAN 2018
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Global / Economy
Key global themes that BMI expects to play out in 2018 include a divergence between developed and emerging market economic growth, US-led conflict over trade and potentially with North Korea, and a regulatory backlash over disruptive technologies.
READ FULL ARTICLE
Economic Analysis - KES: Increasing Stability But Pressures Weighted To The Downside - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling is likely to see increased stability in the coming months given greater confidence in the country's political outlook. That said, this will not deter the shilling's long-term...
External Trade And Investment - Dollar Peg Increasingly Precarious - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Barbados / Economy
Dampened import demand and rising service exports will see Barbados' current account gradually narrow in the coming years. However, persistent external imbalance and limited reserves will place...
Economic Analysis - Q3 Growth Rate Masking Vulnerabilities - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Turkey / Economy
BMI View: Turkey's very strong year-on-year GDP growth rate in Q317 was flattered by base effects from a contraction in Q316, while growth actually slowed in quarter-on-quarter terms, indicating a loss of momentum. Nevertheless, government stimulus has heightened overheating risks, and the current pace of growth is unsustainable.
READ FULL ARTICLE
Economic Analysis - Regional Balance Sheets A Long-Term Threat - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Russia / Economy
Unsustainable debt burdens in many of Russia's regional government balance sheets will threaten long-term fiscal sustainability and weigh on economic growth, potentially leading to a shake-up of...
Economic Analysis - Crib Sheet: Puerto Rico Begins Long Road To Recovery - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Puerto Rico / Economy
Recent developments in Puerto Rico have increased our conviction that the territory faces a long road to recovery in the wake of hurricanes Irma and Maria, which made landfall in September. The...
Economic Analysis - Key Themes For the Middle East and North Africa In 2018 - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Middle East / Economy
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will benefit from improving macroeconomic dynamics in the year ahead, largely on the back of continued gains in the hydrocarbon sector. That said, political...
Economic Analysis - Rate Cuts Not Quite Finished - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Brazil / Economy
The Banco Central do Brazil will extend its rate cutting cycle into Q118, as it seeks to support economic activity amid low inflation. Rates will remain on hold in the quarters thereafter as inflat...
Economic Analysis - Growth Will Recover In 2018 - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Namibia / Economy
Economic activity will accelerate over the coming quarters in Namibia, having struggled with significant fiscal constraints and limited investment in 2017. Major increases in mining output and...
Economic Analysis - MNB Easing Heightens Inflation Risks - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Hungary / Economy
Monetary policy will continue to be highly accommodative through 2017 and into 2018, despite rising core inflationary pressures. As such, there is a significant risk that the Hungarian National...