Economic Analysis - Delayed Hike Still Ahead Of Consensus - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Hungary / Economy
In light of a persistently dovish stance from the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) and falling market-based rate expectation, we now believe the MNB will keep its base rate on hold in 2017 while continuing to pursue unconventional easing measures. However, underlying inflationary pressures are building, and we remain above consensus in our forecasts for interest rate hikes in 2018.
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Economic Analysis - Quick View: Q416 Performance Poses Upside Risk - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Turkey / Economy
Real GDP growth in Turkey rebounded in the final quarter of 2016, accelerating to 3.5% y-o-y in Q416 following a contraction of 1.3% the previous quarter (revised up from 1.8%), significantly...
Market Strategy - PLN: Regional Outperformance To Continue - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Poland / Finance
A strong technical picture and growth outlook supports our bullish view on the Polish zloty (PLN). We expect further gains against the euro and against regional peers over the coming quarters.
Industry Forecast - Growth Outlook Subdued, But Structural Stability Improving - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Ukraine / Industry
While the nationalisation of Ukraine's biggest bank will support long-term structural stability of the country's banking sector, it will have a disruptive short-term impact and a weak macroeconomic...
Economic Analysis - Cautious Stance Giving Way To Rate Cut By Year-End - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / Serbia / Economy
While the National Bank of Serbia will retain a cautious stance towards easing in the coming months, we still expect one rate cut of 25 basis points by end-2016. The need to offset the fiscal...
Industry Forecast - Systemic Risks Receding But Weak Growth Ahead For Banks - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Russia / Economy
While no longer facing heightened systemic risks, the growth outlook for Russian banks remains very subdued relative to the previous decade. Sector consolidation will continue as smaller, weaker...
Market Strategy - Asset Class Strategy Table - 02 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2016 / Europe / Finance
Asset Class Strategy Table
Political Risk Analysis - Stalled Reforms To Have Large Implications - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / Ukraine / Political Risk
The resignation of Ukraine's economy minister will not only put pressure on the government to deliver structural reforms, but will also likely prevent the IMF from disbursing Ukraine with highly...
Global Market View - Emerging Europe Interest Rate Forecasts - 19 OCT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor October 2015 / Europe / Regional Strategy
Emerging Europe Interest Rate Forecasts
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Market Strategy - EM Bounce Ahead, CE To Underperform - 12 OCT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor October 2015 / Europe / Finance
Emerging market assets look ripe for a short-term rally from oversold conditions, which bodes poorly for our view on Central European equity outperformance over the MSCI Emerging Market benchmark. ...