BMI View: Turkey's very strong year-on-year GDP growth rate in Q317 was flattered by base effects from a contraction in Q316, while growth actually slowed in quarter-on-quarter terms, indicating a loss of momentum. Nevertheless, government stimulus has heightened overheating risks, and the current pace of growth is unsustainable.
Real wage growth in Poland will remain strong on the back of a tight labour market, low inflation, and solid growth of investment and productivity. In combination with a record high employment rate, the outlook for household consumption growth is particularly strong in 2017-18.
Leading and coincident indicators are pointing towards a continued pick up in the Polish economy, following a strong Q117 growth reading. An uptick in fixed investment growth and accelerating manufacturing output bode well for our view that real GDP growth will surge to 4.1% in 2017, the economy's fastest pace of expansion in six years.
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Thanks, BMI Research