Currency Forecast - UAH: Recent Stability No Harbinger Of Long-Term Strength - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Ukraine / Economy
Stabilising real GDP growth and an impending IMF bailout tranche dispersal will keep the hryvnia stable over the short term. Over the longer term however, high inflation and an inherently unstable...
Currency Forecast - PLN: Technicals And Fundamentals Supporting Rebound - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Poland / Finance
The Polish zloty (PLN) will receive tailwinds from a widening real interest rate differential over the eurozone in the short term, following some downside pressures in mid-2017. In the long term...
Currency Forecast - KZT: Foreign Investment To Fuel Long Term Appreciation - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Kazakhstan / Finance
Abating depreciatory pressures will see the Kazakh tenge stabilise over the short term, and we believe that the unit is set up for further appreciation over the longer term. This will be primarily...
Currency Forecast - Currency Roundup: EUR And GBP Rally Running Out Of Steam, RUB And TRY To Underperform - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Europe / Finance
Aside from the Turkish lira and the Romanian leu, European currencies have generally performed well on a year-to-date basis. Both the British pound and the euro have made significant gains against...
Currency Forecast - HUF: Short-Term Headwinds But Outperformance To Continue - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Hungary / Economy
Given that relative real rate differentials between Hungary and the eurozone are currently around their lowest level since 2013, having moved notably in the latter's favour in recent weeks, this...
Currency Forecast - RUB: Appreciation Is At An End - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Russia / Finance
We expect the Russian rouble's appreciation to run out of steam and for the unit to depreciate against the US dollar towards the end of 2017 mainly on the back of fading oil gains, and the resumpti...
Market Strategy - PLN: Regional Outperformance To Continue - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Poland / Finance
A strong technical picture and growth outlook supports our bullish view on the Polish zloty (PLN). We expect further gains against the euro and against regional peers over the coming quarters.
Market Strategy - Rouble To Outperform Brent - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Russia / Economy
The Russian rouble is set for a period of short-term weakness due to falling oil prices and waning optimism over the prospect of warming US-Russia relations. That said, high and rising real interes...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Continued Depreciation Ahead Amid Weak External Dynamics - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Ukraine / Finance
An Impending IMF loan instalment will see the Ukrainian hryvnia stabilise following a volatile start to the year. Nevertheless, a weak external account and the removal of capital controls will keep...
Currency Forecast - RSD: Stable Outlook On Improving Fundamentals - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Serbia / Economy
The Serbian dinar will remain stable in the short term and appreciate gradually thereafter. A slight appreciation to RSD123.00/EUR in 2017 and RSD121.00/EUR in 2018 will be driven by attractive...