Political Risk Analysis - Change In PM Does Not Signal Policy Shift - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Poland / Political Risk
We do not expect to see a shift in government policy following the resignation of Polish Prime Minister Beata Szyd?o ahead of a Cabinet reshuffle. Her successor Mateusz Morawiecki is likely to...
Economic Analysis - Pension Reform Calms Political Uncertainty As IMF Loan Disbursal Nears - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Ukraine / Economy
Having passed the crucial pension reform, political uncertainty regarding Ukraine's structural reform commitment and potential early elections will subside over the coming quarters. Additionally...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: New PM's Fiscal Overhaul Raises Red Flags - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Romania / Economy
Romania's parliament endorsed the new cabinet of Prime Minister Mihai Tudose with 275 votes to 102 on June 29.
Political Risk Analysis - April Referendum To Consolidate Erdogan's Power - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Turkey / Political Risk
The Turkish government's planned constitutional referendum, tentatively scheduled for early April 2017, will achieve the requisite majority, serving to strengthen President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's...
Economic Analysis - Crisis Risks Rising As Growth Slows, Capital Flight Accelerates - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Turkey / Economy
With growth momentum slowing and capital flight accelerating, Turkish policymakers face a choice between raising interest rates or tolerating additional lira depreciation. While both have negative...
Political Risk Analysis - Stalled Reforms To Have Large Implications - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / Ukraine / Political Risk
The resignation of Ukraine's economy minister will not only put pressure on the government to deliver structural reforms, but will also likely prevent the IMF from disbursing Ukraine with highly...
Political Risk Analysis - Economic Woes Sapping Government Support In 2016 - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / Russia / Political Risk
Falling living standards in Russia are eroding the ability of nationalist sentiment and aggressive foreign policy to prop up the government's approval ratings. The potential for social unrest is...
Economic Analysis - Reliance On Energy Sector Set To Increase - 28 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Russia / Economy
As the Russian government faces its largest budget deficit since 2009, further alterations to fiscal legislation are becoming increasing likely. While prudent short-term adjustment is necessary...
Political Risk Analysis - Implications Of The Migrant Crisis - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Europe / Political Risk
The increasing flow of migrants into the European Union from the Middle East and Africa has become one of the most emotive and controversial political debates in years. Aside from the human cost of the crisis, the impact on the functioning of the EU and the future of bilateral European relations in years to come remains at stake.
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Political Risk Analysis - More Of The Same Following Fidesz Landslide - 14 APR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2014 / Hungary / Political Risk
Following the re-election of the governing Fidesz party on April 6, Hungary's policy programme will remain centred around supporting government revenues via punitive taxes on business, and populist...