Currency Forecast - AOA: Mounting Pressure Will Encourage Further Devaluation In 2018 - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Angola / Economy
Above target inflation and concerns over social instability will see Angola's central bank maintain the kwanza's official peg to the US dollar over the next six months. That being said, the currenc...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Recent Stability No Harbinger Of Long-Term Strength - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Ukraine / Economy
Stabilising real GDP growth and an impending IMF bailout tranche dispersal will keep the hryvnia stable over the short term. Over the longer term however, high inflation and an inherently unstable...
Economic Analysis - Currency Roundup: Little Upside Left This Year - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Latin America / Economy
We are moderately bearish on Latin American currencies over the coming months, as major commodities face further price weakness and sentiment-driven rallies lose steam
Currency Forecast - Shilling Set For Modest Losses - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling looks set to continue along its ongoing depreciatory trend over the coming quarters, driven by higher inflation and concerns over the government's growing debt burden amongst...
Currency Forecast - IRR: A Gentler Depreciation - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Iran / Economy
Greater oil revenues and inflows of investment as sanctions ease will see the pace of the Iranian rial's depreciation against the US dollar slow compared to the past five years. That said, with...
Currency Forecast - HUF: Short-Term Headwinds But Outperformance To Continue - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Hungary / Economy
Given that relative real rate differentials between Hungary and the eurozone are currently around their lowest level since 2013, having moved notably in the latter's favour in recent weeks, this...
Currency Forecast - ZAR: Rally Nearing Its End - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand's multi-quarter rally is likely nearing an end, in the face of cooling market sentiment toward EM FX and a gradual shift toward monetary easing in South Africa. Over the long...
Currency Forecast - COP: Further Upside Ahead Alongside Oil - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Colombia / Economy
The Colombian peso will continue to strengthen over the coming months, likely moving into a stronger trading range following a break of key resistance. Rising oil prices and still-high real yields...
Currency Forecast - BRL: Rally Will Fade, But Strength To Remain - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Brazil / Economy
The Brazilian real will largely trade sideways over the coming quarters. High real yields and rising oil prices will buoy the unit, even as positive sentiment adjusts to the country's subdued...
Currency Forecast - CLP: Negative Short-Term Outlook To Give Way To Modest Appreciation - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Chile / Economy
The Chilean peso will weaken in 2017 on falling real interest rates and lower copper prices. In 2018, a rebound in the copper market, improving investor sentiment and a rate hiking cycle will...