Economic Analysis - KES: Increasing Stability But Pressures Weighted To The Downside - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling is likely to see increased stability in the coming months given greater confidence in the country's political outlook. That said, this will not deter the shilling's long-term...
Currency Forecast - ZMW: Gradual Sell-off Ahead - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Zambia / Economy
We expect that the Zambian kwacha will continue to sell-off in the months ahead as real rates become less attractive and the country's terms of trade deteriorate modestly. In the long term while...
Currency Forecast - AOA: Mounting Pressure Will Encourage Further Devaluation In 2018 - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Angola / Economy
Above target inflation and concerns over social instability will see Angola's central bank maintain the kwanza's official peg to the US dollar over the next six months. That being said, the currenc...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Recent Stability No Harbinger Of Long-Term Strength - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Ukraine / Economy
Stabilising real GDP growth and an impending IMF bailout tranche dispersal will keep the hryvnia stable over the short term. Over the longer term however, high inflation and an inherently unstable...
Economic Analysis - Currency Roundup: Little Upside Left This Year - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Latin America / Economy
We are moderately bearish on Latin American currencies over the coming months, as major commodities face further price weakness and sentiment-driven rallies lose steam
Currency Forecast - BRL: Short-Term Strength Will Fade In 2018 - 17 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Brazil / Economy
The Brazilian real will likely strengthen over the coming months as bearish sentiment towards the currency rebounds and commodity prices continue to rally.
Operational Risk Snapshot - Sovereign Risk: Diplomatic Standoff Will Not Affect Creditworthiness - 17 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Sovereign creditworthiness within the GCC will remain broadly stable even in the face of rising debt levels and a diplomatic crisis. Despite current efforts to ostracise Qatar, the country will...
Currency Forecast - Shilling Set For Modest Losses - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling looks set to continue along its ongoing depreciatory trend over the coming quarters, driven by higher inflation and concerns over the government's growing debt burden amongst...
Currency Forecast - IRR: A Gentler Depreciation - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Iran / Economy
Greater oil revenues and inflows of investment as sanctions ease will see the pace of the Iranian rial's depreciation against the US dollar slow compared to the past five years. That said, with...
Currency Forecast - ZAR: Rally Nearing Its End - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand's multi-quarter rally is likely nearing an end, in the face of cooling market sentiment toward EM FX and a gradual shift toward monetary easing in South Africa. Over the long...