Sovereign Debt Analysis - Sovereign Risk: Politics To Prevent Significant Compression Of Credit Spreads - 17 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Rising political risk in several major Latin American countries in advance of general elections in 2017-2018 will prevent significant further compression in bond yields and credit default swap...
Operational Risk Snapshot - Sovereign Risk: Diplomatic Standoff Will Not Affect Creditworthiness - 17 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Sovereign creditworthiness within the GCC will remain broadly stable even in the face of rising debt levels and a diplomatic crisis. Despite current efforts to ostracise Qatar, the country will...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Debt Deal Averts Chaotic Default - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Belize / Economy
Belize renegotiated the terms of its USD530mn 2038 'Superbond', lowering its coupon payments and delaying principal payments. The deal will allow the country to avert a potentially chaotic default...
Market Strategy - Sovereign Default Is Likely In 2017 - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid an unabated economic crisis and soaring political tensions, we believe the probability of Venezuela defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations in 2017 exceeds 50%. Venezuela is unlikely to...
Economic Analysis - IMF Deal To Offer Some Stability To Economy - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Egypt / Economy
Egypt will conclude a deal with the IMF before the end of 2016 in the region of USD10bn as the country undertakes the required reforms and fiscal pressures mount. The deal will be a welcome relief...
Political Risk Analysis - Scioli Set To Win Presidency, Reform Economy - 28 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Argentina / Economy
Argentina's upcoming presidential election will mark the end of the populist ideology of Kirchnerism, even as the ruling Frente para la Victoria retains power. Daniel Scioli, the party's chosen...
Market Strategy - Eurobonds: Not Just A Commodity Story - 28 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Africa / Economy
Global headwinds in the form of slowing Chinese growth, weak commodity prices and a strong USD will keep sovereign risk elevated and weigh on eurobond performance in Sub-Saharan Africa over the...
Economic Analysis - 10% Devaluation On The Cards - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Iraq / Economy
The Iraqi dinar will be devalued by 10% in 2016, as the Central Bank is unable to protect the peg amid low oil prices. As a result of the devaluation, the current account and fiscal deficits will...
Sovereign Debt Analysis - EM Sovereign Risk Rising; Pockets Of Resilience - 03 AUG 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2015 / Global / Economy
Sovereign risk will continue to rise across emerging markets owing to the China slowdown, subdued commodity prices and currency weakness. Rising US interest rates will compound the pressure. Some economies will prove relatively resilient amid these headwinds: Chile, the Czech Republic, Egypt and the Philippines have favourable sovereign risk dynamics.
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Sovereign Debt Analysis - Zambia And Oil Exporter Eurobonds To Underperform - 24 NOV 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2014 / Africa / Economy
Sovereign creditworthiness has deteriorated for Zambia and several net oil exporters - Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon and Nigeria. We expect the eurobonds of these countries to underperform regional peers as investors price in the elevation in risks.
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