Economic Analysis - KES: Increasing Stability But Pressures Weighted To The Downside - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling is likely to see increased stability in the coming months given greater confidence in the country's political outlook. That said, this will not deter the shilling's long-term...
Economic Analysis - Regional Balance Sheets A Long-Term Threat - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Russia / Economy
Unsustainable debt burdens in many of Russia's regional government balance sheets will threaten long-term fiscal sustainability and weigh on economic growth, potentially leading to a shake-up of...
Economic Analysis - Unorthodox Financing Plan Will Raise Political Risk - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Algeria / Economy
The reappointment of Ahmed Ouyahia as prime minister of Algeria, and the launch of a new economic plan, signals that that the government will strive harder to cut spending in a bid to narrow its...
Economic Analysis - Fiscal Balance Headed In The Right Direction - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / El Salvador / Economy
Modest revenue growth and constrained government expenditures will see El Salvador's budget deficit narrow in the 2017 and 2018. Additionally, we believe that El Salvador's default in April was...
Economic Analysis - Successful Bond Issuance Points To Retention Of Investor Confidence - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Bahrain / Economy
Bahrain's fiscal position will deteriorate further over the coming years, as large budget shortfalls lead to sharp increases in public debt. Manama's successful international bond issuance on...
Economic Analysis - Higher Deficit On Lower Oil Production, But Little Risk Of Fiscal Crisis - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Kuwait / Economy
Kuwait's fiscal deficit will narrow at a slower pace than we initially anticipated over FY2017/18, as OPEC-initiated cuts to oil production weigh on government revenue growth. Despite this, risks...
Economic Analysis - Election To Bring Even More Conservative Fiscal Path - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Czech Republic / Economy
Andrej Babis, leader of the anti-establishment party Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), will likely win the most seats in the parliamentary elections in October, and his government will focus...
Economic Analysis - Focus On Public Investment And Gradual Deficit Reduction To Continue - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Morocco / Economy
The rationalisation of current spending will continue under the new al-Othmani government in Morocco, which will result in a reduction of its budget deficits over the coming years. Continued emphas...
Economic Analysis - New Crown Prince And Austerity Rollbacks A Boon For Growth - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to Crown Prince and the concomitant easing of fiscal consolidation in Saudi Arabia will support business and consumer confidence over the coming quarters, boost...
Sovereign Debt Analysis - Sovereign Risk: Politics To Prevent Significant Compression Of Credit Spreads - 17 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Latin America / Economy
Rising political risk in several major Latin American countries in advance of general elections in 2017-2018 will prevent significant further compression in bond yields and credit default swap...