Market Strategy - Monthly Fixed Income Strategy - Risks Rising Across The Board - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Global / Finance
The decline in developed market yields over the past month does not appear to be fundamentally driven, and we continue to believe that risks are to the upside for yields. This poses major risks to...
Market Strategy - Monthly Fixed Income Strategy - Credit Spreads Face Major Upside Pressure - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Global / Finance
Global risk-off sentiment is currently putting downside pressure on developed market government bond yields, and given how elevated equities have become, there is scope for significant further...
Market Strategy - Weekly Market Views: Comey Bounce, Levels To Watch - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Global / Finance
After nine consecutive daily losses in US stocks and weakness in the dollar, the FBI's statement that it did not find anything new with regard to Hillary Clinton's emails, combined with favourable...
Market Strategy - Sovereign Default Is Likely In 2017 - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid an unabated economic crisis and soaring political tensions, we believe the probability of Venezuela defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations in 2017 exceeds 50%. Venezuela is unlikely to...
Economic Analysis - New BCB Governor Will Prioritise Fighting Inflation - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Brazil / Economy
The Banco Central do Brasil (BCB), under new governor Ilan Goldfajn, will pursue a prudent policy course over the coming months. The Q216 inflation report released on June 28 and the minutes from...
Market Strategy - Rising Political Risk Will Temper, But Not Reverse, Bond Rally - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
The Venezuelan political crisis continues to escalate, but we do not believe that this will spur a significant reversal in the country's bond markets. While we expect the yield compression in place...
Market Strategy - Weekly Market Views - Rising Inflation To Follow Bullish Equity Break - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Peru / Economy
Stocks globally appear to be breaking higher with Emerging Markets leading the way. The MSCI World has triggered an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern which looks likely to take the index to a new...
Market Strategy - Weekly Market Views - Opportunities In UK Assets - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / Global / Economy
The release of polls showing that British voters are increasingly likely to vote to remain in the EU has led to a surge in sterling, lifting risk assets across the board. Our core view is that the...
Economic Analysis - Sovereign Upgrade At Risk After Policy Reversal - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Hungary / Economy
The Hungarian government's expansive fiscal policy plans for 2017 are a significant reversal from previous pledges, and may put an investment grade upgrade this year out of reach. Fiscal loosening...
Market Strategy - Weekly Market Views - US Underperformance Long Overdue - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Global / Economy
After being the only game in town over the past two years, US equities look set for significant weakness on an absolute and relative basis. While US stocks have shrugged off weakness in emerging...