Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Political Risk Analysis - Trump Victory: Implications For Trade, Aid And Military Presence - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Africa / Economy
With a victory by Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election looking increasingly likely, we expect this will see increased US aid flows to Sub-Saharan Africa and greater military involvement in the region. While not our core view, a win by Republican candidate Donald Trump will have limited impact on trade relations, but would threaten aid and military assistan...
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Political Risk Analysis - Trump Triumphs: Major Policy Shift Ahead - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / United States / Economy
Republican candidate Donald Trump has won the US presidency, winning more than the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton. Furthermore, the Republic...
Political Risk Analysis - Iraq And Syria: Prospects For The Conflicts - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Middle East / Political Risk
The fall of Mosul will mark the end of Islamic State holding territory in Iraq, but this is no panacea for the country's political turmoil. In Syria, the fighting will escalate over the coming...
Political Risk Analysis - Morocco Rejoining The AU: Influence To Increase, Western Sahara Stalemate To Continue - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Morocco / Economy
By rejoining the African Union, Morocco aims to increase its diplomatic reach on the continent. This marks a radical shift from the empty-seat strategy Morocco had adopted since 1984. Rabat will use its newly-found lobbying power to push forward its view on Western Sahara and increase its economic influence in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Political Risk Analysis - Little Hope For Improvement Despite IS Setback - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / Iraq / Economy
Military progress against Islamic State in Iraq is no panacea for the country's protracted political crisis. Increasing poverty, sectarian tensions and power struggles are among the main factors...
Political Risk Analysis - PSUV Dominance Outside Legislature Will Persist Until 2019 - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid near-hyperinflationary conditions, a deep economic recession, and soaring levels of mistrust in its political leadership, Venezuela's opposition will be unable to enact meaningful reform...
Political Risk Analysis - Refugee Crisis To Impact Stability, Not Fiscal Outlook - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan will manage to cover the economic costs induced by the Syrian refugee crisis, thanks to international assistance and by closing its border with Syria. Nevertheless, social tensions will...
Economic Analysis - Private Consumption And Exports To Drive Growth Acceleration - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Israel / Economy
Israeli growth will accelerate over the coming quarters, as public spending returns to higher levels, and exports and private consumption fall back in line following lower than expected growth in...
Political Risk Analysis - Russian 'Intervention' In Syria To Be Curbed By Huge Risks - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Global / Economy
Russia will step up its support for Syria's Assad regime, but will refrain from significant combat operations, due to the risks involved. These include retaliation by Islamic State, an open-ended...