Market Strategy - USD: Dollar To Find Its Footing - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Global / Finance
We are fairly neutral on the US dollar over the next three months relative to both emerging and developed market FX, although from a longer term perspective the dollar should outperform DM FX...
Currency Forecast - UAH: Recent Stability No Harbinger Of Long-Term Strength - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Ukraine / Economy
Stabilising real GDP growth and an impending IMF bailout tranche dispersal will keep the hryvnia stable over the short term. Over the longer term however, high inflation and an inherently unstable...
Currency Forecast - PLN: Technicals And Fundamentals Supporting Rebound - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Poland / Finance
The Polish zloty (PLN) will receive tailwinds from a widening real interest rate differential over the eurozone in the short term, following some downside pressures in mid-2017. In the long term...
Currency Forecast - KZT: Foreign Investment To Fuel Long Term Appreciation - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Kazakhstan / Finance
Abating depreciatory pressures will see the Kazakh tenge stabilise over the short term, and we believe that the unit is set up for further appreciation over the longer term. This will be primarily...
Market Strategy - COP To Outperform Alongside MYR, PHP, MXN - 14 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Global / Finance
The US dollar's trend remains bearish across the board, but is looking increasingly oversold and is trading increasingly cheap relative to real yield differentials. As such, we hold a relatively neutral view at present. We continue to expect the MYR, PHP, and MXN to outperform relative to EM FX. We have also adopted a view of COP outperformance given the improving fundamental and technical...
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Currency Forecast - Currency Roundup: EUR And GBP Rally Running Out Of Steam, RUB And TRY To Underperform - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Europe / Finance
Aside from the Turkish lira and the Romanian leu, European currencies have generally performed well on a year-to-date basis. Both the British pound and the euro have made significant gains against...
Currency Forecast - Shilling Set For Modest Losses - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kenya / Economy
The Kenyan shilling looks set to continue along its ongoing depreciatory trend over the coming quarters, driven by higher inflation and concerns over the government's growing debt burden amongst...
Market Strategy - USD: Recent Weakness Not The Stuff Of Bear Markets - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Global / Finance
We are effectively neutral towards the USD relative to both DM and EM FX. Against DM FX, while the dollar is under pressure from rising real bond yields in the eurozone, the spread remains heavily...
Currency Forecast - IRR: A Gentler Depreciation - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Iran / Economy
Greater oil revenues and inflows of investment as sanctions ease will see the pace of the Iranian rial's depreciation against the US dollar slow compared to the past five years. That said, with...
Currency Forecast - HUF: Short-Term Headwinds But Outperformance To Continue - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Hungary / Economy
Given that relative real rate differentials between Hungary and the eurozone are currently around their lowest level since 2013, having moved notably in the latter's favour in recent weeks, this...