June 2014 Analysis

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Market Strategy - Negotiated Settlement Most Likely Outcome In Bond Fight - 30 JUNE 2014

We believe a negotiated settlement that avoids a bond default represents the most likely outcome to the long-running legal battle in US courts between the Argentine government and bond investors who have refused previous restructuring offers, the so-called 'holdouts'. However, the path forward is unclear at this point, and as such the risk of default on the Argentina's restructured sovereign...

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Market Strategy - Headwinds Ahead For Latin American Assets - 23 JUNE 2014

Latin American assets could be facing a period of heightened volatility over the coming weeks as geopolitical events in the Middle East and Europe trigger a return to greater risk aversion among investors. This comes against the backdrop of continued expectations for further monetary policy normalisation in the US, particularly as recent macroeconomic data supports a relatively upbeat outlook...

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Market Strategy - Regional FX And Local Debt Strategy - 16 JUNE 2014

We are positive towards Ugandan local debt, given relative currency stability and benign inflation. We are less sanguine regarding Kenyan local debt given the weaker shilling, though we expect the central bank to prevent any massive sell-off in the run-up to Kenya's maiden eurobond launch. Our forecast for the Tanzanian shilling has been changed to a considerable depreciation following a bearis...

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