Industry Forecast - Credit Boom Will Finally Slow - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Ghana / Economy
The Ghanaian banking sector will come under significant strain in 2016 as adverse - although improving - macroeconomic conditions lead to an increasing number of non-performing loans, bringing to...
Industry Forecast - Systemic Risks Receding But Weak Growth Ahead For Banks - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Russia / Economy
While no longer facing heightened systemic risks, the growth outlook for Russian banks remains very subdued relative to the previous decade. Sector consolidation will continue as smaller, weaker...
Economic Analysis - Export Slowdown Weighing On Economic Activity - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Israel / Economy
Israel's economic activity will be affected by weaknesses in the exports sector amid a slowdown in global trade, adverse foreign exchange movements and industry-specific difficulties. A strong...
Economic Analysis - Economic Consequences Of Default Muted In Key Sectors - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Mozambique / Economy
Minimal government involvement in Mozambique's key industries would see economic growth remain intact in the event of the sovereign default. However, the effects would be sufficient to see a deterioration in political risk and an acceleration of the metical's depreciation over the next two years.
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Economic Analysis - Tight Monetary Policy Will Gradually Pull Down Inflation - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Argentina / Economy
Monetary policy will remain tight in Argentina over the coming years as the government attempts to rein in inflation. Together with tighter fiscal policy, supply-side reforms and a strengthening...
Political Risk Analysis - After Rousseff: A Long Road Towards Meaningful Reforms - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Brazil / Political Risk
Brazil's new President Michel Temer will shift economic policy towards the centre in the coming quarters, attempting to address many longstanding concerns of investors. However, we remain sceptical...
Market Strategy - Chinese Stocks Providing A Major Warning Signal - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Global / Finance
Offshore Chinese stocks continue to underperform the rest of the world casting a long shadow over the mainland economy. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) is now the second cheapest...
Market Strategy - CLP: Break Lower Likely Temporary - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Chile / Finance
The Chilean peso's recent weakness is in line with our view that the unit's Q116 rally would fade in Q216. We maintain our view that the unit will strengthen in H216 as copper prices begin to trade...
Political Risk Analysis - Hichilema Victory Will Bolster Business Environment - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Zambia / Political Risk
Zambia's August presidential elections will be highly competitive, encouraging elevated levels of social expenditure by the ruling Patriotic Front as well as increasing social unrest, as supporters...
Economic Analysis - Widening Current Account Deficit No Cause for Concern - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Romania / Economy
BMI View: Romania's current account deficit will expand over the next two years, driven by a widening trade shortfall. The current account deficit will pose limited risk, as it remains relatively...