May 2017 Analysis

Commodity Price Forecast - Iron Ore: Downward Revision On Cooling Chinese Demand - 22 MAY 2017

We have revised downwards our iron ore price forecast to an average of USD65/tonne in 2017 compared to USD70/tonne previously as Chinese demand for the ore is showing signs of cooling earlier than we expected. Nevertheless, government fiscal support to the infrastructure and construction sectors, despite being weaker than Q117, will ensure steel production holds up in 2017, sustaining demand...

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Economic Analysis - Credit Risks To Increase As Regulatory Tightening Continues - 15 MAY 2017

Any policy missteps by the Chinese government in curbing leverage could lead to continued onshore bond sell-off and potentially spill over to the US dollar bond market, considering the dominance of Chinese investors in the offshore market. Additionally, we expect the number of defaults to rise in the coming months due to increasing refinancing needs coupled with rising borrowing costs and...

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