Economic Analysis - Key Themes For the Middle East and North Africa In 2018 - 18 DEC 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2017 / Middle East / Economy
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will benefit from improving macroeconomic dynamics in the year ahead, largely on the back of continued gains in the hydrocarbon sector. That said, political...
Economic Analysis - No Devaluation As Pressures On The Peg Ease - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Iraq / Economy
The Central Bank of Iraq will continue to focus on protecting the peg of the dinar to the US dollar over the coming quarters, which will be facilitated by easing pressures on the peg owing to...
Economic Analysis - Successful Bond Issuance Points To Retention Of Investor Confidence - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Bahrain / Economy
Bahrain's fiscal position will deteriorate further over the coming years, as large budget shortfalls lead to sharp increases in public debt. Manama's successful international bond issuance on...
Economic Analysis - Higher Deficit On Lower Oil Production, But Little Risk Of Fiscal Crisis - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Kuwait / Economy
Kuwait's fiscal deficit will narrow at a slower pace than we initially anticipated over FY2017/18, as OPEC-initiated cuts to oil production weigh on government revenue growth. Despite this, risks...
Economic Analysis - Abu Dhabi - Easing Of Production Curbs Will Bolster 2018 Growth - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / United Arab Emirates / Economy
Oil production cuts will weigh on real GDP growth in Abu Dhabi in 2017, albeit offset somewhat by strong investment into new industries. In 2018, positive oil production growth and ongoing diversif...
Economic Analysis - Austerity To Take Its Toll On Growth - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Bahrain / Economy
Economic growth will slow in Bahrain over the coming quarters as fiscal consolidation measures negatively impact investment and consumption. The infrastructure sector will remain a key driver of...
Economic Analysis - New Crown Prince And Austerity Rollbacks A Boon For Growth - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to Crown Prince and the concomitant easing of fiscal consolidation in Saudi Arabia will support business and consumer confidence over the coming quarters, boost...
Operational Risk Snapshot - Sovereign Risk: Diplomatic Standoff Will Not Affect Creditworthiness - 17 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Middle East / Economy
Sovereign creditworthiness within the GCC will remain broadly stable even in the face of rising debt levels and a diplomatic crisis. Despite current efforts to ostracise Qatar, the country will...
Political Risk Analysis - Preference For Status Quo Will Drive Mediation Efforts - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kuwait / Economy
Kuwait's need to balance regional geopolitical tensions will see the country's Emir continue to strive towards a resolution of the ongoing diplomatic spat in the GCC. A failure to do so will see...
Currency Forecast - IRR: A Gentler Depreciation - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Iran / Economy
Greater oil revenues and inflows of investment as sanctions ease will see the pace of the Iranian rial's depreciation against the US dollar slow compared to the past five years. That said, with...