Economic Analysis - Abu Dhabi - Easing Of Production Curbs Will Bolster 2018 Growth - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / United Arab Emirates / Economy
Oil production cuts will weigh on real GDP growth in Abu Dhabi in 2017, albeit offset somewhat by strong investment into new industries. In 2018, positive oil production growth and ongoing diversif...
Economic Analysis - Austerity To Take Its Toll On Growth - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Bahrain / Economy
Economic growth will slow in Bahrain over the coming quarters as fiscal consolidation measures negatively impact investment and consumption. The infrastructure sector will remain a key driver of...
Economic Analysis - New Crown Prince And Austerity Rollbacks A Boon For Growth - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to Crown Prince and the concomitant easing of fiscal consolidation in Saudi Arabia will support business and consumer confidence over the coming quarters, boost...
Political Risk Analysis - Preference For Status Quo Will Drive Mediation Efforts - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kuwait / Economy
Kuwait's need to balance regional geopolitical tensions will see the country's Emir continue to strive towards a resolution of the ongoing diplomatic spat in the GCC. A failure to do so will see...
Currency Forecast - IRR: A Gentler Depreciation - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Iran / Economy
Greater oil revenues and inflows of investment as sanctions ease will see the pace of the Iranian rial's depreciation against the US dollar slow compared to the past five years. That said, with...
Economic Analysis - Q1 Pace Of Deficit Reduction Will Not Be Sustained - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
Saudi Arabia's Q1 budget performance underpins our view for easing fiscal pressures in 2017 and for continued effort to improve the management of public finances. However, the pace of deficit...
Economic Analysis - Austerity Measures To Lower Debt Ratio From 2018 - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan's public debt will reduce as a proportion of GDP from 2018 onwards, as austerity measures and sizeable foreign aid inflows improve the kingdom's fiscal balance. A shift towards reliance on...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - Fiscal Reform Underway, But Budget Deficits Until 2020 - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The Saudi government will continue to undertake fiscal reform over the coming years, in an attempt to diversify government revenues and boost investor confidence in the kingdom. Combined with...
Economic Analysis - Reconstruction Supporting Growth Uptick, But No Boom Ahead - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iraq / Economy
The reconstruction of Iraq's damaged infrastructure and the recapture of Mosul by the Iraqi army will support fixed investment and private consumption growth in 2017, while the recovery in oil...