Economic Analysis - No Devaluation As Pressures On The Peg Ease - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Iraq / Economy
The Central Bank of Iraq will continue to focus on protecting the peg of the dinar to the US dollar over the coming quarters, which will be facilitated by easing pressures on the peg owing to...
Economic Analysis - Successful Bond Issuance Points To Retention Of Investor Confidence - 02 OCT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Bahrain / Economy
Bahrain's fiscal position will deteriorate further over the coming years, as large budget shortfalls lead to sharp increases in public debt. Manama's successful international bond issuance on...
Economic Analysis - Higher Exports To Facilitate Gradual Uptick In Growth - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Economic growth will pick up in Jordan over the coming quarters, largely driven by higher export levels. Fiscal consolidation will nevertheless weigh on consumption, preventing a stronger economic...
Economic Analysis - Higher Deficit On Lower Oil Production, But Little Risk Of Fiscal Crisis - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Kuwait / Economy
Kuwait's fiscal deficit will narrow at a slower pace than we initially anticipated over FY2017/18, as OPEC-initiated cuts to oil production weigh on government revenue growth. Despite this, risks...
Economic Analysis - New Crown Prince And Austerity Rollbacks A Boon For Growth - 24 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to Crown Prince and the concomitant easing of fiscal consolidation in Saudi Arabia will support business and consumer confidence over the coming quarters, boost...
Political Risk Analysis - Preference For Status Quo Will Drive Mediation Efforts - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Kuwait / Economy
Kuwait's need to balance regional geopolitical tensions will see the country's Emir continue to strive towards a resolution of the ongoing diplomatic spat in the GCC. A failure to do so will see...
Currency Forecast - IRR: A Gentler Depreciation - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / Iran / Economy
Greater oil revenues and inflows of investment as sanctions ease will see the pace of the Iranian rial's depreciation against the US dollar slow compared to the past five years. That said, with...
Economic Analysis - Austerity Measures To Lower Debt Ratio From 2018 - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan's public debt will reduce as a proportion of GDP from 2018 onwards, as austerity measures and sizeable foreign aid inflows improve the kingdom's fiscal balance. A shift towards reliance on...
Economic Analysis - Q1 Pace Of Deficit Reduction Will Not Be Sustained - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
Saudi Arabia's Q1 budget performance underpins our view for easing fiscal pressures in 2017 and for continued effort to improve the management of public finances. However, the pace of deficit...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.