Economic Analysis - Austerity Measures To Lower Debt Ratio From 2018 - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan's public debt will reduce as a proportion of GDP from 2018 onwards, as austerity measures and sizeable foreign aid inflows improve the kingdom's fiscal balance. A shift towards reliance on...
Economic Analysis - Q1 Pace Of Deficit Reduction Will Not Be Sustained - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
Saudi Arabia's Q1 budget performance underpins our view for easing fiscal pressures in 2017 and for continued effort to improve the management of public finances. However, the pace of deficit...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - Fiscal Reform Underway, But Budget Deficits Until 2020 - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The Saudi government will continue to undertake fiscal reform over the coming years, in an attempt to diversify government revenues and boost investor confidence in the kingdom. Combined with...
Economic Analysis - Reconstruction Supporting Growth Uptick, But No Boom Ahead - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iraq / Economy
The reconstruction of Iraq's damaged infrastructure and the recapture of Mosul by the Iraqi army will support fixed investment and private consumption growth in 2017, while the recovery in oil...
Economic Analysis - Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Below Consensus On Saudi As Production Cuts Hit - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Middle East / Economy
We maintain our below-consensus growth forecast for Saudi Arabia, as we expect the economy to contract by 0.2% in 2017, against growth of 0.9% according to Bloomberg consensus.
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Economic Analysis - Fiscal Consolidation Measures To Narrow Deficit - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Fiscal consolidation measures will lead to a reduction in Jordan's budget deficit over the coming quarters. Government debt levels will peak in 2017, as ongoing reforms facilitate a gradual reducti...
Economic Analysis - No Liquidity Crunch From Hiking Cycle - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
SAMA will continue to raise interest rates in line with the US Federal Reserve, in order to limit pressures on the riyal peg to the US dollar. This will do little to mitigate inflationary pressures...
Political Risk Analysis - Iraq And Syria: Prospects For The Conflicts - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Middle East / Political Risk
The fall of Mosul will mark the end of Islamic State holding territory in Iraq, but this is no panacea for the country's political turmoil. In Syria, the fighting will escalate over the coming...