Economic Analysis - Quick View - Dovish Stance Will Be Tested By Persistent Inflation - 22 MAY 2017
On May 11, the BCRP unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4.00%
Monetary Policy Analysis
Economic Analysis - Rising Inflation Will Not Alter BCN Policy - 22 MAY 2017
We expect the Banco Central de Nicaragua will continue to devalue the c?rdoba at a steady pace in the next two years, in spite of spiking consumer price inflation. Inflation will be driven by...
Economic Analysis - UEMOA Inflation Will See Slow Rise - 10 APR 2017
Inflation will tick up slowly in C?te d'Ivoire and the rest of UEMOA in 2017 and beyond, driven by currency weakness and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, monetary policy rates will be kept on...
Commodity Strategy - Commodity-Driven Inflation Has Peaked - 10 APR 2017
The boost that rising commodity prices are providing to global inflation is peaking and will gradually subside in the coming quarters.
Economic Analysis - Delayed Hike Still Ahead Of Consensus - 10 APR 2017
In light of a persistently dovish stance from the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) and falling market-based rate expectation, we now believe the MNB will keep its base rate on hold in 2017 while continuing to pursue unconventional easing measures. However, underlying inflationary pressures are building, and we remain above consensus in our forecasts for interest rate hikes in 2018.
Economic Analysis - Balanced Risks Will Keep Monetary Policy On Hold - 10 APR 2017
The South African Reserve Bank will maintain the repo rate on hold in 2017, at 7.00%. Cooling inflation and sluggish growth suggests little impetus for further hikes, after the bank tightened...
Economic Analysis - New Harvest Will Forestall Rate Hikes - 20 MAR 2017
Inflation is likely to cool in East Africa in H217, as a new harvest bolsters maize supplies across the region, tempering food price pressures. That said, crop yields will remain vulnerable to the...
Economic Analysis - Quick View: Disinflation Pointing To More Aggressive Rate Cuts - 20 MAR 2017
Rapid disinflation will likely encourage the BCB to increase the pace of its aggressive rate cutting cycle at its next policy meeting on April 12, posing downside risks to our Selic target rate...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Below Consensus On Saudi As Production Cuts Hit - 20 MAR 2017
We maintain our below-consensus growth forecast for Saudi Arabia, as we expect the economy to contract by 0.2% in 2017, against growth of 0.9% according to Bloomberg consensus.
Economic Analysis - Monetary And Fiscal Pressures Will Push Bond Note Expansion - 06 FEB 2017
Zimbabwean monetary policy will continue to revolve around the pace at which the central bank injects bond notes into the economy over the coming quarters. The likely expansion of the use of bond...