Economic Analysis - Austerity Measures To Lower Debt Ratio From 2018 - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Jordan / Economy
Jordan's public debt will reduce as a proportion of GDP from 2018 onwards, as austerity measures and sizeable foreign aid inflows improve the kingdom's fiscal balance. A shift towards reliance on...
Political Risk Analysis - New Cabinet Reinforces Likelihood Of An Election Delay - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Congo / Economy
President Joseph Kabila announced a new cabinet on May 9 for Democratic Republic of Congo, naming a list of more than 50 ministers and deputy ministers. The composition of the new cabinet further...
Political Risk Analysis - Property Tax Implementation A Test Of Government Will - 22 MAY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2017 / Trinidad & Tobago / Political Risk
Trinidad & Tobago's reintroduction of property taxes will be test of the government's will to pursue fiscal consolidation. Though likely to prompt opposition, the effort will be key to...
Political Risk Analysis - Rouhani To Win Re-Election In Presidential Vote - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / Iran / Economy
Incumbent Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will win re-election on May 19 2017 given relatively strong support for his foreign and economic policies and a divided hardline opposition.
Economic Analysis - New Harvest Will Forestall Rate Hikes - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Africa / Economy
Inflation is likely to cool in East Africa in H217, as a new harvest bolsters maize supplies across the region, tempering food price pressures. That said, crop yields will remain vulnerable to the...
Economic Analysis - Aramco IPO: Scenarios For Economic Transformation - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Saudi Arabia / Economy
The success of the IPO of national oil company Saudi Aramco will be crucial in determining the economic and political trajectory of the kingdom over the coming decade. As a central tenet of Vision...
Economic Analysis - BMI vs Consensus: Below Consensus On Saudi As Production Cuts Hit - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Middle East / Economy
We maintain our below-consensus growth forecast for Saudi Arabia, as we expect the economy to contract by 0.2% in 2017, against growth of 0.9% according to Bloomberg consensus.
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Political Risk Analysis - Rwanda-Burundi Tensions Not Likely To Destabilise Rwanda - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Rwanda / Political Risk
Rwanda will remain one the most stable countries in East Africa even as tensions remain strained between Rwanda and Burundi. A solid support base for President Paul Kagame will see social unrest...
Economic Analysis - EM Reform Tracker: Fiscal Reform High On The Agenda - 06 FEB 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2017 / Global / Economy
Over the past month, we have seen slow but steady business friendly reform in several emerging markets. Most notable was continued fiscal reform in India and Brazil; moves to further privatize...
Political Risk Analysis - Dissatisfaction With Regime And Insurgencies Will Sustain Instability - 30 JAN 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2017 / Sudan / Economy
Sudan will suffer from many sources of political risk in the coming years. Multiple insurgencies and public dissatisfaction with the government threaten the continuity of the longstanding administr...