Currency Forecast - ZAR: Rally Nearing Its End - 10 JULY 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2017 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand's multi-quarter rally is likely nearing an end, in the face of cooling market sentiment toward EM FX and a gradual shift toward monetary easing in South Africa. Over the long...
Economic Analysis - Balanced Risks Will Keep Monetary Policy On Hold - 10 APR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor April 2017 / South Africa / Economy
The South African Reserve Bank will maintain the repo rate on hold in 2017, at 7.00%. Cooling inflation and sluggish growth suggests little impetus for further hikes, after the bank tightened...
Economic Analysis - Looser DM Monetary Policy Points To Rate Hold - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / South Africa / Economy
We now expect that the South African Reserve Bank will keep the policy rate on hold in 2016 as a shift toward loose monetary policy in the developed world bolsters the rand and tempers imported...
Economic Analysis - Inflation Reacceleration In H216 Will Prompt Further Tightening - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / South Africa / Economy
Rising inflation will prompt the South African Reserve Bank to briefly resume its monetary hiking cycle in the latter part of 2016, even despite sluggish economic growth. In 2017, price pressures...
Economic Analysis - ZAR: 2016 Budget To Revive Early-Year Bullish Run - 15 FEB 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor February 2016 / South Africa / Economy
BMI View: In the short term, we expect the rand's early-year rally to be revived by a prudent 2016/17 Budget presentation, in the light of both capital expenditure cuts and a rise in taxes. However...
Currency Forecast - ZAR: Multiple Reasons To Be Bearish - 14 JULY 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2014 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand will range-trade for the remainder of 2014 and then subsequently depreciate in 2015 and 2016. The main drivers of this weakness will be a sustained current account deficit and tepid inflows of foreign investment.
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Currency Forecast - ZAR: Mild Reversal On The Cards For H214 - 31 MAR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2014 / South Africa / Economy
We hold a bearish view on the rand over the short term, expecting negative investor sentiment to keep the rand trading relatively weakly. Concerns regarding China are growing following a rapid...
Currency Forecast - ZAR: Vulnerable To Hot Money Withdrawal - 13 JAN 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2014 / South Africa / Economy
The South African rand looks weak from a technical perspective, having tentatively broken through six-month trendline support at ZAR10.6000/US$.
Market Strategy - Financial Markets Looking Weak - 23 DEC 2013
Emerging Markets Monitor December 2013 / South Africa / Economy
The Johannesburg All-Share Index (JALSH) looks weak from a technical perspective, and we believe that the market is in the early stages of a sustained downtrend.
Economic Analysis - Rate Hike Talk, But No Action Ahead - 25 NOV 2013
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2013 / South Africa / Economy
Although the South African Reserve Bank is emphasising the upside risks to inflation stemming from potential rand depreciation, we maintain our forecast that the repo rate will stay on hold at...