Industry Forecast - Banking Sector: Deterioration Set To Continue - 18 SEPT 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2017 / Venezuela / Economy
Deposit and loan growth will continue to fall in real terms in Venezuela, as the country's ongoing economic and political crisis weighs heavily on the banking sector. However, we do not expect the...
Economic Analysis - Money Supply Growth To Push Venezuela Towards Hyperinflation - 21 AUG 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor August 2017 / Venezuela / Economy
Venezuela's inflation will remain by far the highest in the world over the remainder of the year, driven by massive money supply growth and a deterioration in the value of the bol?var. We expect...
Industry Trend Analysis - PdVSA: Approaching Default - 20 MAR 2017
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2017 / Venezuela / Operational Risk
A realised sub-USD50/bbl oil price will undermine PdVSA's ability to satisfy forthcoming debt repayments, resulting in likely default in Q217. This would reduce investment into the sector and...
Market Strategy - Sovereign Default Is Likely In 2017 - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid an unabated economic crisis and soaring political tensions, we believe the probability of Venezuela defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations in 2017 exceeds 50%. Venezuela is unlikely to...
Market Strategy - Rising Political Risk Will Temper, But Not Reverse, Bond Rally - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
The Venezuelan political crisis continues to escalate, but we do not believe that this will spur a significant reversal in the country's bond markets. While we expect the yield compression in place...
Economic Analysis - Economy Will Struggle Under High Inflation And Investor Disfavour - 27 JUNE 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor June 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Venezuela's deep recession will persist over the coming quarters, given the virtual standstill in private investment, constraints on government spending owing to the low price of oil, and the...
Political Risk Analysis - PSUV Dominance Outside Legislature Will Persist Until 2019 - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid near-hyperinflationary conditions, a deep economic recession, and soaring levels of mistrust in its political leadership, Venezuela's opposition will be unable to enact meaningful reform...
Economic Analysis - Further Back-Door Devaluations Ahead Amid Political Pressure - 14 SEPT 2015
Emerging Markets Monitor September 2015 / Venezuela / Economy
The bol?var will be steadily devalued as the Venezuelan government downwardly adjusts both the Sicad and Simadi exchange rates and increases their use. Although the moves will help partially offset...
Market Strategy - Economic Policy Implementation To Shape Investor Sentiment - 24 MAR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2014 / Venezuela / Economy
Following a rally of more than 200 basis points at the end of February, Venezuela's benchmark US$ 2027 global bond has traded in the comparatively narrow range of between 13.5% and 14.0% in the...
Market Strategy - Upside Pressure On Sovereign Debt Yields To Persist - 27 JAN 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2014 / Venezuela / Economy
In line with our expectations, yields on Venezuela sovereign debt instruments has risen considerably, against the backdrop of a deteriorating business environment and rising political uncertainty. ...