Market Strategy - Sovereign Default Is Likely In 2017 - 14 NOV 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid an unabated economic crisis and soaring political tensions, we believe the probability of Venezuela defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations in 2017 exceeds 50%. Venezuela is unlikely to...
Market Strategy - Rising Political Risk Will Temper, But Not Reverse, Bond Rally - 01 AUG 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor July 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
The Venezuelan political crisis continues to escalate, but we do not believe that this will spur a significant reversal in the country's bond markets. While we expect the yield compression in place...
Political Risk Analysis - PSUV Dominance Outside Legislature Will Persist Until 2019 - 23 MAY 2016
Emerging Markets Monitor May 2016 / Venezuela / Economy
Amid near-hyperinflationary conditions, a deep economic recession, and soaring levels of mistrust in its political leadership, Venezuela's opposition will be unable to enact meaningful reform...
Market Strategy - Economic Policy Implementation To Shape Investor Sentiment - 24 MAR 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor March 2014 / Venezuela / Economy
Following a rally of more than 200 basis points at the end of February, Venezuela's benchmark US$ 2027 global bond has traded in the comparatively narrow range of between 13.5% and 14.0% in the...
Market Strategy - Upside Pressure On Sovereign Debt Yields To Persist - 27 JAN 2014
Emerging Markets Monitor January 2014 / Venezuela / Economy
In line with our expectations, yields on Venezuela sovereign debt instruments has risen considerably, against the backdrop of a deteriorating business environment and rising political uncertainty. ...
Market Strategy - Political Risk To Continue To Weigh On Fixed Income Markets - 18 NOV 2013
Emerging Markets Monitor November 2013 / Venezuela / Finance
Venezuela's fixed income markets have reflected the recent uptick in political risk and ongoing economic challenges in the country, with yields and CDS spreads spiking sharply higher. We believe...