Economic Analysis - Key Themes For the Middle East and North Africa In 2018 - 18 DEC 2017

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will benefit from improving macroeconomic dynamics in 2018, largely on the back of continued gains in the hydrocarbon sector. Further oil price gains will be relatively modest after two years of robust acceleration, but will be accompanied by a return to crude output growth in several key markets as compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement wanes in the back half of the year. This will feed through to not only stronger economic activity, but an uptick in fiscal revenues. That said, political dynamics will continue to have a significant impact on the economic outlook for the region. In some countries, elevated political instability will continue to temper growth, while in others structural reforms will offer significant tailwinds to investment.

In light of these dynamics, we have identified five key themes which we believe will define the macroeconomic and political dynamics of the region in the year ahead:

  • Growth To Accelerate After 2017 Slowdown

  • Accelerating But Off Boom Year Highs
    MENA - Average Real GDP Growth, %
    Note: 2018 = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

    This article is part of our Emerging Markets Monitor coverage. To access this article subscribe now or sign up for free trial