UAH: Unlikely To Move

We see little scope for the National Bank of Ukraine to loosen its grip on the hryvnia in the near term, and broadly expect the unit to remain largely unchanged near the UAH8.0000/US$ level. Heightened global risk aversion from the beginning of August, as fears have climbed regarding the possibility of an escalation of the eurozone's sovereign debt crisis, as well as global growth concerns, means that we believe the institutional appetite for the hryvnia to be given freer range is negligible in the short run.

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