Is Emerging Asia Headed For Recession?

Leading indicators across emerging Asia are signalling a much deeper economic slowdown, if not an outright contraction, in the coming quarters. The lack of fiscal and monetary levers - both regionally and globally - is a major concern for 2012 growth, as is the fact that Chinese demand has started to come unstuck. In terms of our country-specific forecasts, we are already well below consensus on the region's growth prospects, but even so, the risks appear heavily skewed to the downside. As ever, a US double-dip scenario would threaten to tip the balance in favour of recession across the region in 2012.

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