Impressively Resilient

July 2006 | Currency Forecast

KES/US$ has recovered following its recent sharp falls, and we see potential for further short-term gains. The unit's resilience against global EM risk aversion, the impact of the recent drought and fresh government corruption allegations is impressive, and reflects the growing strength of the Kenyan economy. We have long forecasted stability for the unit, with a slight bias toward appreciation, and we see this continuing over the next year. We expect the unit to test key resistance at the KES70.7000/US$ level at some point, and any break of this level, although not our core view, would set up substantial future

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