Slow Progress To RON3.000/EUR

March 2007 | Currency Forecast

The leu has been treading water since January, but we believe there is still upside potential for the unit: our end-year forecast is RON3.280/EUR. A break of this level would set up the next leg on the move to RON3.150/EUR and ultimately our long-term target of RON3.000/EUR. Nominal appreciation of just over 3% this year is a significant slowing from 8% gains in 2006, but with EU accession now over, and central bank fears over unsustainable appreciation, we see more cautious moves ahead.

If you would like to subscribe to Emerging Markets Monitor and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.

If you would like to take a trial to Emerging Markets Monitor please click on the trial link below.