Chart of the Day: Trade Surplus Drives BRL

Data released this week put Brazil's H107 trade surplus at US$20.6bn, a 5.6% y-o-y rise. We are continuing to pencil in US$42bn trade surplus this year, which is roughly in line with the H107 pace, but there is even the chance that it could exceed last year's US$46bn outturn. As the accompanying chart shows, the 12-month trailing trade surplus (which peaked at US$47.6bn in May) has mirrored the appreciation of the

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