Recession Likely In 2008

Estonia is facing a hard landing scenario this year, with negative real GDP growth in the second quarter likely to be replicated in Q3 and Q4. We have revised down our full-year economic growth forecast to -1.1% with a mild improvement to 2.5% expected in 2009. Beyond then, we still believe that a marked recovery is likely in 2010, with growth forecast to register at 4.7% and 5.5% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

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