Analysis and market intelligence on fixed income, forex and equities in Asia, EMEA and Latin America

Economy

Bearish Oil, Bullish Silver

January 2009 | Market Strategy

We recently suggested that the spread between the 30-month and the front-month Brent crude contracts would compress further as we expected the long end of the curve to come in. This view has played out well since we first initiated the call at US$22.09/bbl with the spread declining to US$16.97/bbl at one point today. We see further downside over the coming months, and target the key level of US$10.00/bbl. While we do not rule out the potential for a bounce in oil prices in the short term - which would help the spread compress even further - we anticipate that

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