Tracking The Black Market Bolivar

Expectations of continued expansionary economic policies and an official currency devaluation should see the parallel exchange rate (VEF*) continue to depreciate in the short term. The rate currently stands at VEF*6.2000/US$ and we are setting up VEF*6.5500/US$ as our next target. Against the Colombian peso, the black-market bolivar is at a low of COP384.90/VEF*, and we believe that further Venezuelan underperformance will ensue over the coming months.

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