Rouble: Watch Oil For A Break Above RUB36.50/basket

At one point trading at RUB37.64/basket (basket weight is US$0.55:EUR0.45) on August 19, the Russian rouble looks poised to appreciate back toward its recent high of RUB36.50/basket in the short term. The bounce off support at RUB39.00/basket on August 12 and the formation of a double-top pattern is a particularly good signal from a technical perspective. Fundamentally, the commensurate bounce in oil (Brent) back toward its 2009 high of US$75.00/bbl has also been crucial in pushing rouble momentum higher.

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