The Recovery Begins: Upward Revisions Predominate This Time

Q2 was a much happier quarter for global markets - if not necessarily for global growth - and our Sovereign Risk Ratings (SRR) board for the Middle East and North Africa is looking broadly stable, with just two states (Tunisia and Iraq) seeing their ratings fall. Certainly, the higher oil price environment has helped improve the fiscal outlook for the region: we now forecast smaller (or no) fiscal deficits for those states which rely on oil revenues, now that our commodities team has revised up its price projections: we see the OPEC Basket averaging US$55/bbl in 2009, and then US$60/bbl

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