Leu: Trend Breaks But Range Still In Play

The Romanian leu pushed through trendline resistance at RON4.2400/EUR on September 23, at one point trending as high as RON4.2090/EUR the following day. Notably, the leu has bucked short-term trends seen in other benchmark emerging European currencies with both the Turkish lira and Polish zloty continuing to weaken against the euro over the same period. The Romanian unit's seeming divergence can be accounted for by the approval of a EUR1.85bn IMF loan tranche on September 23, half of which has gone directly into National Bank of Romania (NBR) reserves. To be sure, it is likely that the NBR utilised at

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