Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) provides subscribers with the latest analysis, forecasts and ratings on fixed income, FX, interest rates, commodities and equity markets across Asia, Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Produced by Business Monitor International, the emerging market specialists, EMM systematically covers the latest market developments for each region.
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Finance / Bangladesh
We recently sketched out our view of yuan weakness over the coming years (see 'CNY: Fundamentals No Longer Supportive', May 20), a call that is based on relatively steep valuations and a worsening fundamental backdrop. Currency weakness in key trading partners (not least in the Japanese yen) has seen China's real effective exchange rate soar to multi-decade highs. This will put...
2013-05-23Finance / Bangladesh
Our view of the Shanghai Industrials Index outperforming the Hang Seng Financials Index is up 3.4% over the past week. With the A-Shares market breaking out of support, and the H-Shares...
2013-05-21Finance / Bangladesh
Japanese bond yields are surging and we believe that much higher yields are to come. We remain bearish on 10-year JGBs and are up 19 basis points on this view so far.
2013-05-20Economy
BMI View: We believe Emerging European credit default swaps (CDS) markets could be in for a significant re-pricing over the next few months if the EU's ban on naked CDS trading is revoked. The ban has been the main factor behind persistent anomalies between our proprietary sovereign risk ratings and regional CDS markets over recent quarters, meaning the CDS spread between several...
2013-05-23Economy / Turkey
Recent monetary policy decisions imply that Turkey's central bank is becoming more concerned about supporting growth than aiding the rebalancing process, and as a result we are turning...
2013-02-21Economy / Bosnia-Herzegovina
BMI View: A better external environment has improved emerging Europe's sovereign outlook for 2013, but we see greater potential for relative value plays in regional credit default swap...
2013-01-31Finance / Japan
We have initiated a tactical bearish position on Japan's Topix in our key market views folder at today's open of 948.52. This call is largely based on the technicals, with the impressive bull-run in play since last November showing signs of exhaustion. Firstly, as the chart below shows, the index failed to break above its pre-tsunami high of 980.00 earlier this month. Secondly,...
2013-02-15Economy / Brazil
The consolidation in global equity markets could have further to run in the near term, as bullish momentum in January has come a long way. Technical breaks below support on key regional...
2013-02-11Economy / Brazil
We remain bullish Brazilian and Colombian energy stocks in our regional asset class strategy. This informs our bullish view on Colombia's IGBC index and Bogotá-listed Pacific...
2012-12-27Economy / Brazil
We are adopting an increasingly constructive outlook on Brazilian equities in light of a more bullish technical picture and a more promising fundamental outlook for select sectors in the economy. Having previously held a neutral-to-bearish view on both the technical and fundamental picture (see 'Weak Technicals And Fundamentals Point To Downside Ahead', May 7), the Bovespa equity...
2013-05-23Economy / Argentina
Our latest round of BMI's Sovereign Risk Rating (SRR) update for Latin America and the Caribbean region reveals that investor perceptions of governments' creditworthiness generally...
2013-05-15Economy / Argentina
Despite the recent protestations of the Argentine government, we maintain that the country is headed for a currency devaluation this year. Indeed, growing demand for dollars, as measured...
2013-05-08Economy / Nigeria
Our bullish view on Nigerian equities continues to play out due to strong performance in the financial sector and ongoing growth in the consumer industries. We believe that a buoyant economy will help drive further gains, although there are some risks, most notably due to the country's security situation and associated political risks.
2013-05-16Economy / South Africa
Recent data augur for slow economic growth in South Africa, boding ill for the rand and reinforcing our bearish stance toward the currency. Statistics South Africa has released March...
2013-05-10Economy / Angola
African currencies have been relatively stable by historical standards over the first months of 2013, although in many countries risks remain weighted to the downside. Meanwhile, the...
2013-05-01
