Macroeconomic Forecast Vietnam

Our 2009 real GDP growth forecast stands at 5.1%, with Q309 estimates of 5.2% y-o-y expansion being testimony of the resilience of the service sector in the face of a global downturn. As a consequence, the government may actually achieve the 5.0% growth target approved by the National Assembly in May. However, we are forecasting growth to slow to 4.4% in 2010, significantly below the 6.5% targeted by the government in November, as we believe fiscal and monetary policy will need to be tightening sharply in order to rein in the expanding trade deficit and curb inflation.

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