Diplomatic Crisis: Three Scenarios Explored

We have been following recent developments in Libya with growing concern. Libyan Leader Muammar Qadhafi has ratcheted up his rhetoric against the West amid an ongoing row with Switzerland, with the US the latest target of reproof. Tripoli has further escalated the dispute by imposing an economic embargo on Switzerland and threatening US businesses in Libya with unspecified consequences if the US does not apologise for dismissive comments made by a US official about Qadhafi. Below we identify three plausible outcomes of the dispute, with our core scenario still a return to the status quo ante in the near

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