UGX: Speculative Headwinds Hit The Shilling

In line with a trend seen across East Africa, the Ugandan shilling has been on a continuous slide since the fourth quarter of 2009, having lost 14.6% of its value over the six months to May 2010. At the time of writing, the unit was flirting with UGX2,175/US$, the last point of technical support before its all-time low of UGX2,300/US$. We do not think it will breach this level, but we do expect the shilling to test it; our short-term target is thus UGX2,175/US$.

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