NBR Will Keep RON Weak

Having appreciated to its strongest level since Q109 in March this year, the Romanian leu has subsequently depreciated to RON4.1920/EUR at one point on June 4. While the National Bank of Romania (NBR) continues to intervene in the FX market to smooth out volatility, we believe that the deterioration in risk sentiment towards the eurozone has fuelled depreciatory pressures. On the back of central bank intervention, we expect the leu to continue trading around the RON4.2000/EUR level in the short term, with strong support to be found at PLN4.3500/EUR and resistance at RON4.0500/EUR.

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