Global Cocoa Outlook: Ghana Focus

BMI View: We estimate that Ghanaian cocoa production registered a slight y-o-y improvement in 2009/10, helping the global market move into balance in 2009/10 after three consecutive seasons of deficit. In 2010/11, we forecast production to increase again, which will help loosen the market further and support our core view of moderating cocoa prices in H210. We expect Ghanaian production to continue growing over the long term, although this growth will be constrained by government price controls. There is a long term risk that the removal domestic price controls, combined with government investment, could eventually see Ghana overtake Ivory Coast

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