Path To Recovery Paved With Uncertainty

BMI View: The macroeconomic recovery taking place throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) fails to inspire us, highlighted in the region's average sovereign risk rating remaining effectively unchanged on last quarter. While vast oil wealth and relatively benign levels of government debt will ensure that a sovereign credit event remains out of the picture for the foreseeable future, ongoing uncertainty surrounding levels of debt held by the private sector and banks' exposure to faltering real estate sectors will keep risk aversion and borrowing rates elevated over the coming quarters.

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