Soybean To Average USc950/bushel In 2011

Short-term direction for front-month (November) soybean will likely be determined by the upcoming world supply estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which will be released on October 8. This is chiefly because this report could prompt sharp moves in grain markets such as corn and wheat, which could feed through to soybean prices. Given that we are bearish grains in the short term, our current bias regarding soybean is for a move down to multi-month support around USc1,030/bushel. In the event of a more significant retracement, multi-year trendline support currently comes in around USc960/bushel. That said, bullish news from the USDA would likely negate this view.

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