RSD: Appreciatory Momentum To Resume In Q2

With the Serbian dinar remaining firmly within a depreciatory trendchannel since November 2009, and pushing through a key level of support at RSD97.00/EUR in early January, the near-term outlook for the currency is certainly weak. Indeed, having fallen to a new record low of RSD98.94/EUR at one point on February 4, the currency appears set for further depreciation over the coming weeks. As a result, we caution that additional depreciation beyond RSD100.00/EUR is likely, though we expect the central bank to intervene in the event of a sell-off beyond RSD105.00/EUR.

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