Currency Forecasts

The guarani has ebbed and flowed this year in tandem with the price of soybeans, the country’s primary export. A 35% drop in prices of the commodity over the past five months have... 2005-12-01

The peso moved decisively through the key COP2,300/US$ level in mid-October, and has strengthened slowly, but surely, since then. At the time, we said gains to COP2,250/US$ were in... 2005-11-25

The peso has staged a comeback in November, after a two-month bout of weakness triggered by a slate of disappointing economic data. However, we see little compelling evidence from... 2005-11-17

The Jamaican dollar, which normally trades steadily under a managed float, has weakened sharply since mid-2005, prior to which it had traded around JMD61.00/US$ for the first half... 2005-11-11

The peso has been knocked of late by October's bout of global risk aversion, which saw the unit decline to a two-month low of CLP548.65/US$ on October 27. Although we continue to... 2005-11-03

The Haitian gourde has weakened by almost 30% since mid-2004, when the unit stood at HTG33.00US$ following a relief rally on the deposal of then-president Bertrand Aristide. It is... 2005-10-28

The Banco Central de la Republica will continue to accumulate reserves and thus weaken the peso well into 2006, according to board member Luis Corsiglia. This is in spite of criticism... 2005-10-20

The Uruguayan peso has recovered from its sharp sell-off earlier in the year, and is eyeing June's three-year high of UYU23.70/US$. Evidently, the central bank is loath to allow the... 2005-10-07

We see little reason to take a negative view of the real in the near-term. With real interest rates currently at 13.5%, impressive and sustained economic outperformance, and a diminution... 2005-09-29

The Peruvian sol sold off sharply in early September, hitting an eleven-month low of PEN3.332/US$, on heavy dollar buying by banks, even though the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP)... 2005-09-22